Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 51 → 51.7 (+0.7)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.97	2.10	-0.13 ▼	2014-07-01
Core CPI	0.15	0.30	-0.15 ▼	2014-07-01
Core PCE	1.61	1.56	+0.05 ▬	2014-07-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2014-07-13
GDP	5.00	-2.90	+7.90 ▲	2014-07-01
PMI (mfg)	55.30	55.40	-0.10 ▬	2014-07-01
PMI (svc)	56.00	56.30	-0.30 ▬	2014-07-03
Unemployment	6.10	6.20	-0.10 ▼	2014-07-03
10Y yield	2.53	2.55	-0.02 ▬	2014-07-11
2Y yield	0.48	0.46	+0.02 ▬	2014-07-11
2s10s slope	2.05	2.09	-0.04 ▬	2014-07-11
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.30	2.50	-0.20 ▼	2014-07-09
Policy rate	5.76	5.76	+0.00 ▬	2014-07-11
GDP	7.40	7.70	-0.30 ▼	2014-04-16
PMI (mfg)	51.70	51.00	+0.70 ▲	2014-07-01
PMI (svc)	55.00	55.50	-0.50 ▼	2014-07-03
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	4.12	4.13	-0.01 ▬	2014-07-11
2Y yield	3.69	3.70	-0.01 ▬	2014-07-11
2s10s slope	0.43	0.43	+0.00 ▬	2014-07-11
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.50	0.50	+0.00 ▬	2014-06-30
Policy rate	0.15	0.15	+0.00 ▬	2014-07-03
GDP	-0.10	0.20	-0.30 ▼	2014-06-16
PMI (mfg)	51.80	51.90	-0.10 ▬	2014-07-01
PMI (svc)	52.80	52.80	+0.00 ▬	2014-07-03
Unemployment	11.60	11.70	-0.10 ▬	2014-07-01
10Y yield	2.16	2.28	-0.12 ▼	2014-07-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.70	3.40	+0.30 ▲	2014-06-25
Core CPI	2.20	2.30	-0.10 ▬	2014-06-25
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2014-06-13
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	3.60	3.60	+0.00 ▬	2014-06-29
10Y yield	0.53	0.54	-0.01 ▬	2014-07-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.