Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2014-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2014-04daily glanceweekly archive →2014-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2014-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
no fires
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2014-05-01 → 2014-05-15)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.17 → 2.00 -0.17 (2014-05-01 → 2014-05-15)
  • pmi_svc: 53.10 → 55.20 +2.10 (2014-04-03 → 2014-05-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-05-04 → 2014-05-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.18 → 2.17 -0.01 (2014-05-02 → 2014-05-23)
  • yield_10y: 2.60 → 2.54 -0.06 (2014-05-02 → 2014-05-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.42 → 0.37 -0.05 (2014-05-02 → 2014-05-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 1.80 -0.60 (2014-04-11 → 2014-05-09)
  • policy_rate: 5.77 → 5.77 0.00 (2014-05-04 → 2014-05-23)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.57 → 0.44 -0.13 (2014-05-04 → 2014-05-23)
  • yield_10y: 4.29 → 4.16 -0.13 (2014-05-04 → 2014-05-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.72 → 3.71 -0.01 (2014-05-04 → 2014-05-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.70 0.00 (2014-04-30 → 2014-05-15)
  • gdp: 0.90 → 0.20 -0.70 (2014-04-16 → 2014-05-15)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.40 → 52.50 -0.90 (2014-05-02 → 2014-05-22)
  • pmi_svc: 53.10 → 53.50 +0.40 (2014-04-23 → 2014-05-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2014-04-03 → 2014-05-08)
Japan
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-04-30 → 2014-05-21)

Busiest week: 2014-W18 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2014-W18 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2014-05 vs 2014-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2014-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2014-W18

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W19

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W20

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change

2014-W21

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
unknown · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change