Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2013-05

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2013-04daily glanceweekly archive →2013-06 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2013-05 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W20: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M13 ×1 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.07 → 0.10 +0.03 (2013-05-01 → 2013-05-16)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.39 → 1.10 -0.29 (2013-05-01 → 2013-05-15)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-05-05 → 2013-05-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.56 → 1.75 +0.19 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
  • yield_10y: 1.78 → 2.01 +0.23 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.22 → 0.26 +0.04 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.40 +0.30 (2013-04-09 → 2013-05-09)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.40 -0.07 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.42 → 3.42 -0.00 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.95 → 3.02 +0.06 (2013-05-03 → 2013-05-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.20 0.00 (2013-04-30 → 2013-05-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.70 → 47.80 +1.10 (2013-05-02 → 2013-05-23)
  • pmi_svc: 46.60 → 47.50 +0.90 (2013-04-23 → 2013-05-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.80 → -0.60 +0.20 (2013-04-25 → 2013-05-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.90 → -0.70 +0.20 (2013-04-25 → 2013-05-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-04-26 → 2013-05-22)

Busiest week: 2013-W21 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W19 (2 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-05 vs 2013-04, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-05).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2013-W18

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W19

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W20

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2013-W21

● 4 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M13_contraction_easing, M1_inflation_surprise_up, M3_policy_easing, M9_yield_spike

United States
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
China
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
disinflationary stall
contraction · below target · easing
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 2 active