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Macro Regime — 2012-W11

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2012-03 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2012-03); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: overheating / late-cycle
China: overheating / late-cycle
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2012-03	2012-02	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.19 2012-03-01	0.07 2012-02-01	▲ 0.12
Core PCE	% YoY	2.04 2012-03-01	2.03 2012-02-01	→ 0.01
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.58 2012-03-01	2.9 2012-02-01	▼ -0.32
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	52.4 2012-03-01	54.1 2012-02-01	▼ -1.7
PMI (svc)	index	57.3 2012-03-05	56.8 2012-02-03	▲ 0.5
Policy rate	%	0.25 2012-03-31	0.25 2012-02-29	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1.9 2012-03-30	1.68 2012-02-29	▲ 0.22
Unemployment	%	8.2 2012-03-01	8.3 2012-02-01	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	2.23 2012-03-30	1.98 2012-02-29	▲ 0.25
2Y yield	%	0.33 2012-03-30	0.3 2012-02-29	→ 0.03

China

Indicator	Basis	2012-03	2012-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	3.2 2012-03-09	4.5 2012-02-09	▼ -1.3
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	53.1 2012-03-01	51 2012-02-01	▲ 2.1
PMI (svc)	index	57.3 2012-03-01	55.7 2012-02-01	▲ 1.6
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	not recorded
2s10s slope	pp	0.65 2012-03-31	0.52 2012-02-29	▲ 0.13
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.5 2012-03-31	3.53 2012-02-29	→ -0.03
2Y yield	%	2.85 2012-03-31	3.02 2012-02-29	▼ -0.16

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2012-03	2012-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.6 2012-03-30	2.6 2012-02-29	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	0.5 2012-03-01	-0.8 2012-02-01	▲ 1.3
PMI (mfg)	index	47.7 2012-03-22	49 2012-02-22	▼ -1.3
PMI (svc)	index	48.7 2012-03-22	49.4 2012-02-22	▼ -0.7
Policy rate	%	1 2012-03-08	1 2012-02-09	→ 0
Unemployment	%	10.7 2012-03-01	—	—
10Y yield	%	3.28 2012-03-01	3.74 2012-02-01	▼ -0.46

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2012-03	2012-02	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-0.6 2012-03-27	-0.9 2012-02-25	▲ 0.3
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0.3 2012-03-27	0.1 2012-02-25	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2012-03-13	0.1 2012-02-14	→ 0
Unemployment	%	4.5 2012-03-31	4.5 2012-02-29	→ 0
10Y yield	%	0.97 2012-03-01	0.96 2012-02-01	→ 0

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

overheating / late-cycle

expansion · above target · on hold

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

○ no change

China

overheating / late-cycle

expansion · above target · on hold

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

stall · below target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

○ no change

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

● 1 active

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 51 → 53.1 (+2.1)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).
Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise The 10-year yield isn't spiking, so this channel is dormant. A jump of ≥0.1pp would fire it — watch it because it compresses the highest-multiple growth names and long bonds fastest.
Yield-curve inversion (2s10s < 0) The 2s10s curve is positive (not inverted), so this warning channel is dormant. It fires if 2s10s turns negative — watch it because inversion is a classic late-cycle recession warning, though with long and variable lead times.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M1Inflation surprise (upside)

Trigger: core_cpi: -1.1 → -0.9 (+0.2)

Core inflation comes in higher than the prior reading.
Why: Core strips out food and energy, so a move in it signals persistent, broad price pressure rather than a one-off in volatile items — the kind a central bank reacts to.
The market reprices the policy-rate path higher.
Why: If inflation is stickier than thought, the central bank must keep rates higher for longer to cool it; traders bake that expectation into the whole rate curve immediately, before any actual hike.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. rise, not just nominal yieldsnominal yield — The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation..
Why: The inflation is already in the print, so the jump in nominal yields isn't just compensating for higher inflation — it's a genuine rise in the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders.
A higher real yield is a higher discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. on future cash flows.
Why: Money earned years from now is discounted back to today at the real rate; when that rate rises, distant cash flows shrink in present-value terms more than near ones.
Long-duration growth equities de-rate hardest; banks and value hold up; the currency firms.
Why: Growth stocks are valued mostly on far-future profits, so a higher discount rate hits them most. Banks earn more as rates rise (wider margins), and value/cyclical earnings sit nearer in time. Higher local rates also pull in foreign capital, lifting the currency.

Helps
financialsvalueUSDshort-duration bonds

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgold (in real terms)

Caveat: Misfires if the print is read as one-off/transitory, or if growth is simultaneously rolling over (a stagflation mix), where cyclicals don't get the usual lift.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.90	2.58	+0.32 ▲	2012-03-16
Core CPI	0.10	0.19	-0.09 ▬	2012-03-16
Core PCE	2.04	2.03	+0.01 ▬	2012-03-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-18
GDP	3.00	2.80	+0.20 ▲	2012-02-29
PMI (mfg)	52.40	54.10	-1.70 ▼	2012-03-01
PMI (svc)	57.30	56.80	+0.50 ▲	2012-03-05
Unemployment	8.30	8.20	+0.10 ▲	2012-03-09
10Y yield	2.31	2.29	+0.02 ▬	2012-03-16
2Y yield	0.37	0.37	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-16
2s10s slope	1.94	1.92	+0.02 ▬	2012-03-16
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.20	4.50	-1.30 ▼	2012-03-09
Policy rate	n/a
GDP	8.90	9.10	-0.20 ▬	2012-01-17
PMI (mfg)	53.10	51.00	+2.10 ▲	2012-03-01
PMI (svc)	57.30	55.70	+1.60 ▲	2012-03-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.55	3.56	-0.01 ▬	2012-03-16
2Y yield	2.97	2.98	-0.01 ▬	2012-03-16
2s10s slope	0.58	0.58	-0.00 ▬	2012-03-16
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.70	2.70	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-14
Policy rate	1.00	1.00	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-08
GDP	0.50	-0.80	+1.30 ▲	2012-03-01
PMI (mfg)	49.00	49.00	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-01
PMI (svc)	48.80	49.40	-0.60 ▼	2012-03-05
Unemployment	10.70	10.40	+0.30 ▲	2012-03-01
10Y yield	3.28	3.74	-0.46 ▼	2012-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.10	-0.20	+0.30 ▲	2012-02-25
Core CPI	-0.90	-1.10	+0.20 ▲	2012-02-25
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-13
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	4.50	4.50	+0.00 ▬	2012-02-29
10Y yield	0.97	0.96	+0.00 ▬	2012-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield ✓: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.