Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2011-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2011-07daily glanceweekly archive →2011-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2011-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.29 → 0.20 -0.09 (2011-08-01 → 2011-08-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.75 → 3.60 -0.15 (2011-08-01 → 2011-08-14)
  • gdp: 1.30 → 1.00 -0.30 (2011-07-29 → 2011-08-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-08-07 → 2011-08-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.30 → 1.99 -0.31 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
  • yield_10y: 2.58 → 2.19 -0.39 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.28 → 0.20 -0.08 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 6.40 → 6.50 +0.10 (2011-07-09 → 2011-08-09)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.32 -0.04 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
  • yield_10y: 4.04 → 3.99 -0.05 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
  • yield_2y: 3.69 → 3.67 -0.02 (2011-08-05 → 2011-08-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2011-07-29 → 2011-08-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 49.70 -0.70 (2011-08-01 → 2011-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 51.60 → 51.50 -0.10 (2011-08-03 → 2011-08-23)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.80 → -0.50 +0.30 (2011-07-26 → 2011-08-25)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.40 → 0.20 +0.60 (2011-07-26 → 2011-08-25)

Busiest week: 2011-W34 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W32 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011-08 vs 2011-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2011-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W32

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W33

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2011-W34

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M6_growth_slowdown

United States
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
stall-speed, at target
stall · at target · on hold
Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active