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Macro Regime — 2010-W11

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2010-03 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2010-03); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: expansion, at target
China: goldilocks / reflation
Euro area: goldilocks / reflation
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2010-03	2010-02	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.02 2010-03-01	0.04 2010-02-01	→ -0.02
Core PCE	% YoY	1.78 2010-03-01	1.7 2010-02-01	→ 0.08
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.29 2010-03-01	2.15 2010-02-01	▲ 0.14
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	56.5 2010-03-01	58.4 2010-02-01	▼ -1.9
PMI (svc)	index	53 2010-03-03	50.5 2010-02-03	▲ 2.5
Policy rate	%	0.25 2010-03-31	0.25 2010-02-28	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	2.82 2010-03-31	2.8 2010-02-26	→ 0.02
Unemployment	%	9.9 2010-03-01	9.8 2010-02-01	→ 0.1
10Y yield	%	3.84 2010-03-31	3.61 2010-02-26	▲ 0.23
2Y yield	%	1.02 2010-03-31	0.81 2010-02-26	▲ 0.21

China

Indicator	Basis	2010-03	2010-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.7 2010-03-01	1.5 2010-02-01	▲ 1.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	55.1 2010-03-01	52 2010-02-01	▲ 3.1
PMI (svc)	index	57 2010-03-01	58.1 2010-02-01	▼ -1.1
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	not recorded
2s10s slope	pp	1.47 2010-03-31	1.31 2010-02-26	▲ 0.16
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.48 2010-03-31	3.38 2010-02-26	▲ 0.11
2Y yield	%	2.01 2010-03-31	2.07 2010-02-26	▼ -0.05

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2010-03	2010-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.5 2010-03-31	1 2010-02-26	▲ 0.5
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	0.3 2010-03-01	-0.8 2010-02-01	▲ 1.1
PMI (mfg)	index	56.3 2010-03-24	54.1 2010-02-19	▲ 2.2
PMI (svc)	index	53.7 2010-03-24	52 2010-02-19	▲ 1.7
Policy rate	%	1 2010-03-04	1 2010-02-04	→ 0
Unemployment	%	10 2010-03-31	—	—
10Y yield	%	3.99 2010-03-01	4.11 2010-02-01	▼ -0.12

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2010-03	2010-02	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-1.1 2010-03-28	-1.2 2010-02-25	→ 0.1
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-1.1 2010-03-28	-1.3 2010-02-25	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2010-03-17	0.1 2010-02-18	→ 0
Unemployment	%	5 2010-03-01	—	—
10Y yield	%	1.36 2010-03-01	1.29 2010-02-01	▲ 0.07

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

expansion, at target

expansion · at target · on hold

Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.

○ no change

China

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · below target · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · below target · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

○ no change

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 52 → 55.1 (+3.1)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).
Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise The 10-year yield isn't spiking, so this channel is dormant. A jump of ≥0.1pp would fire it — watch it because it compresses the highest-multiple growth names and long bonds fastest.
Yield-curve inversion (2s10s < 0) The 2s10s curve is positive (not inverted), so this warning channel is dormant. It fires if 2s10s turns negative — watch it because inversion is a classic late-cycle recession warning, though with long and variable lead times.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.10	2.29	-0.19 ▼	2010-03-17
Core CPI	0.10	0.02	+0.08 ▬	2010-03-18
Core PCE	1.78	1.70	+0.08 ▬	2010-03-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2010-03-21
GDP	5.90	5.70	+0.20 ▲	2010-02-26
PMI (mfg)	56.50	58.40	-1.90 ▼	2010-03-01
PMI (svc)	53.00	50.50	+2.50 ▲	2010-03-03
Unemployment	9.70	9.90	-0.20 ▼	2010-03-05
10Y yield	3.70	3.68	+0.02 ▬	2010-03-19
2Y yield	1.02	0.98	+0.04 ▬	2010-03-19
2s10s slope	2.68	2.70	-0.02 ▬	2010-03-19
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.70	1.50	+1.20 ▲	2010-03-01
Policy rate	n/a
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	55.10	52.00	+3.10 ▲	2010-03-01
PMI (svc)	57.00	58.10	-1.10 ▼	2010-03-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.38	3.36	+0.02 ▬	2010-03-19
2Y yield	1.95	1.95	+0.00 ▬	2010-03-19
2s10s slope	1.43	1.41	+0.01 ▬	2010-03-19
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.90	0.90	+0.00 ▬	2010-03-16
Policy rate	1.00	1.00	+0.00 ▬	2010-03-04
GDP	0.30	-0.80	+1.10 ▲	2010-03-01
PMI (mfg)	54.20	54.10	+0.10 ▬	2010-03-01
PMI (svc)	51.80	52.00	-0.20 ▬	2010-03-03
Unemployment	9.90	10.00	-0.10 ▬	2010-03-01
10Y yield	3.99	4.11	-0.12 ▼	2010-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-1.30	-1.70	+0.40 ▲	2010-02-25
Core CPI	-1.20	-1.20	+0.00 ▬	2010-02-25
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2010-03-17
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	5.00	5.20	-0.20 ▼	2010-03-01
10Y yield	1.36	1.29	+0.07 ▲	2010-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.