Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 49 → 49.5 (+0.5)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary. and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M3Monetary easing (rate cut)

Trigger: policy_rate: 2.65 → 2.4 (-0.25)

The central bank cuts its policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates..
Why: The policy rate anchors the entire rate structure, so a cut lowers the risk-free baseline against which every asset is valued.
Discount ratesdiscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. fall across asset classes and liquidity expectations rise.
Why: A lower risk-free rate raises the present value of future cash flows everywhere, and a cut signals the bank will keep conditions loose.
Risk assets re-rate up; the currency softens.
Why: Cheaper money flows toward higher-returning assets, and a lower local rate narrows the yield advantage of holding the currency, so it weakens.
The weaker currency lifts exporters, commodities, gold, and EM.
Why: Commodities priced in the easing currency rise in that currency; exporters gain competitiveness; and EM borrowers with dollar debt benefit as the dollar softens.

Helps
equities (broadly)goldEM assetslong-duration bondscommodities

Hurts
the easing currencycash/money-market real yield

Caveat: If the cut is an emergency response to a fast-deteriorating outlook ('cutting into a recession'), equities can fall even as bonds rally — the growth signal outweighs the liquidity boost.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

M9Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise

Trigger: yield_10y: 1.31 → 1.5 (+0.19)

⚠ Fired on a stale print: yield_10y as of 2025-05-01 (17d old). The change may predate current conditions — treat as provisional.

The 10-year yield jumps.
Why: The long yield sets the cost of long-term money for the whole economy and the discount rate for the longest cash flows.
The discount rate on all long-dated cash flows rises.
Why: Equity valuations and long-bond prices are present values of distant cash flows; a higher long yield shrinks those present values.
Long-duration growth equities compress, long bonds fall, gold is pressured.
Why: The longest-duration assets are most exposed to the discount-rate move, and a higher real yieldreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Helps
banks/insurers (reinvestment)cashvalue over growth

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldrate-sensitive REITs/utilities

Caveat: Granularity is daily, so a single-session jump can be noise; a sustained multi-session move is the real signal. Distinguish a growth-driven rise (risk-on) from a supply/term-premium rise (risk-off).

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.30	2.38	-0.08 ▬	2025-05-13
Core CPI	0.20	0.13	+0.07 ▬	2025-05-13
Core PCE	2.78	2.60	+0.18 ▲	2025-05-01
Policy rate	4.50	4.50	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-18
GDP	-0.30	3.80	-4.10 ▼	2025-04-30
PMI (mfg)	48.70	49.00	-0.30 ▬	2025-05-01
PMI (svc)	51.60	50.80	+0.80 ▲	2025-05-05
Unemployment	4.20	4.30	-0.10 ▬	2025-05-02
10Y yield	4.43	4.45	-0.02 ▬	2025-05-16
2Y yield	3.98	3.96	+0.02 ▬	2025-05-16
2s10s slope	0.45	0.49	-0.04 ▬	2025-05-16
FX vs USD	101.09	100.88	+0.21 ▬	2025-05-16

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-10
Policy rate	3.10	3.10	+0.00 ▬	2025-04-21
GDP	5.40	5.40	+0.00 ▬	2025-04-16
PMI (mfg)	49.50	49.00	+0.50 ▲	2025-05-01
PMI (svc)	50.40	50.80	-0.40 ▼	2025-04-30
Unemployment	5.00	5.10	-0.10 ▬	2025-05-01
10Y yield	1.68	1.68	-0.00 ▬	2025-05-16
2Y yield	1.47	1.45	+0.02 ▬	2025-05-16
2s10s slope	0.20	0.23	-0.02 ▬	2025-05-16
FX vs USD	7.21	7.21	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-16

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.20	2.20	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-02
Policy rate	2.40	2.65	-0.25 ▼	2025-04-17
GDP	0.60	0.60	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-02
PMI (mfg)	49.00	48.70	+0.30 ▬	2025-05-02
PMI (svc)	50.10	49.70	+0.40 ▲	2025-05-06
Unemployment	6.20	6.10	+0.10 ▲	2025-05-02
10Y yield	3.07	3.10	-0.03 ▬	2025-05-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.12	1.12	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-16

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.60	3.70	-0.10 ▼	2025-04-18
Core CPI	1.60	1.50	+0.10 ▲	2025-04-18
Policy rate	0.50	0.50	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-01
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.50	2.50	+0.00 ▬	2025-05-02
10Y yield	1.50	1.31	+0.19 ▲	2025-05-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	145.61	146.65	-1.04 ▼	2025-05-16

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.