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Macro Regime — 2024-W20

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2024-05 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2024-05); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: overheating / late-cycle
China: deflation watch
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: stall-speed, at target

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2024-05	2024-04	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.14 2024-05-01	0.27 2024-04-01	▼ -0.13
Core PCE	% YoY	2.77 2024-05-01	3.01 2024-04-01	▼ -0.24
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	3.24 2024-05-01	3.36 2024-04-01	▼ -0.12
FX vs USD	px	104.67 2024-05-31	106.22 2024-04-30	▼ -1.55
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49.2 2024-05-01	50.3 2024-04-01	▼ -1.1
PMI (svc)	index	49.4 2024-05-03	51.4 2024-04-03	▼ -2
Policy rate	%	5.5 2024-05-31	5.5 2024-04-30	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	-0.38 2024-05-31	-0.35 2024-04-30	→ -0.03
Unemployment	%	3.9 2024-05-01	3.9 2024-04-01	→ 0
10Y yield	%	4.51 2024-05-31	4.69 2024-04-30	▼ -0.18
2Y yield	%	4.89 2024-05-31	5.04 2024-04-30	▼ -0.15

China

Indicator	Basis	2024-05	2024-04	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0.3 2024-05-11	0.1 2024-04-11	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	7.23 2024-05-31	7.24 2024-04-30	→ -0
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49.5 2024-05-01	50.4 2024-04-01	▼ -0.9
PMI (svc)	index	51.1 2024-05-31	51.2 2024-04-30	→ -0.1
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.45 2024-05-20	3.45 2024-04-22	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.49 2024-05-31	0.4 2024-04-30	▲ 0.09
Unemployment	%	5 2024-05-01	5 2024-04-01	→ 0
10Y yield	%	2.29 2024-05-31	2.3 2024-04-30	→ -0.01
2Y yield	%	1.8 2024-05-31	1.9 2024-04-30	▼ -0.1

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2024-05	2024-04	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.6 2024-05-31	2.4 2024-04-30	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	1.08 2024-05-31	1.07 2024-04-30	→ 0.01
GDP	% YoY	0.2 2024-05-31	0.6 2024-04-30	▼ -0.4
PMI (mfg)	index	47.4 2024-05-23	45.6 2024-04-23	▲ 1.8
PMI (svc)	index	53.3 2024-05-23	52.9 2024-04-23	▲ 0.4
Policy rate	%	not recorded
Unemployment	%	6.4 2024-05-30	6.5 2024-04-03	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	3.12 2024-05-01	3.07 2024-04-01	→ 0.05

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2024-05	2024-04	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	2 2024-05-24	2.2 2024-04-19	▼ -0.2
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.5 2024-05-24	2.7 2024-04-19	▼ -0.2
FX vs USD	px	156.95 2024-05-31	156.31 2024-04-30	▲ 0.64
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	not recorded
Unemployment	%	2.6 2024-05-31	2.6 2024-04-30	→ 0
10Y yield	%	1.07 2024-05-01	0.87 2024-04-01	▲ 0.2

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

overheating / late-cycle

stall · above target · on hold

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

● 2 active

China

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

○ no change

Japan ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

unknown · below target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 2 active

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50.3 → 49.2 (-1.1)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M10Yield-curve inversion (2s10s < 0)

Trigger: slope_2s10s: -0.4 → -0.41 (-0.01)

The 10-year yield falls below the 2-year (2s10s2s10s — The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning. inverts).
Why: Normally longer bonds yield more; inversion means the market expects policy ratespolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. to be lower in the future than now — i.e. it expects cuts, usually because growth is set to weaken.
Bank lending margins compress.
Why: Banks borrow short and lend long; when long rates sit below short rates, the spread they earn (net interest marginnet interest margin — The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.) is squeezed, discouraging lending.
Capital rotates toward defensives and durationduration — How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change. as the cycle turns.
Why: An inverted curve is a historically reliable late-cycle warning, so investors position ahead of a slowdown — favoring steady-demand defensives and long bonds that rally when cuts arrive.

Helps
long-duration bonds (as the turn approaches)defensivesquality

Hurts
banks (margin compression)cyclicalssmall-caps

Caveat: Inversion has long and variable lead times to any actual downturn; it's a regime warning, not a timing signal, and can persist for months while risk assets keep rising.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

China

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50.4 → 49.5 (-0.9)

Manufacturing PMI is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensives and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicals, small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M2Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation)

Trigger: core_cpi: 2.5 → 2.2 (-0.3)

Core inflation falls more than the prior reading.
Why: A faster-than-expected cooling in the persistent part of inflation tells the market the central bank has more room to ease.
The market prices an earlier or deeper easing path.
Why: Lower inflation removes the reason to keep rates high, so traders pull forward expected cuts into the curve.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. fall.
Why: The expected policy rate drops while inflation expectations stay anchored, so the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders declines.
A lower discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. re-rates long-duration assets upward; long bonds rally.
Why: Future cash flows are now discounted less harshly, lifting growth equities most; bond prices rise mechanically as their yields fall.

Helps
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgoldrate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs)

Hurts
USD (vs easing-laggard peers)bank net-interest margins

Caveat: Misfires if disinflation is driven by demand collapse rather than supply normalization — then the growth scare dominates and risk assets fall despite lower yields.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M9Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise

Trigger: yield_10y: 0.87 → 1.07 (+0.2)

⚠ Fired on a stale print: yield_10y as of 2024-05-01 (18d old). The change may predate current conditions — treat as provisional.

The 10-year yield jumps.
Why: The long yield sets the cost of long-term money for the whole economy and the discount rate for the longest cash flows.
The discount rate on all long-dated cash flows rises.
Why: Equity valuations and long-bond prices are present values of distant cash flows; a higher long yield shrinks those present values.
Long-duration growth equities compress, long bonds fall, gold is pressured.
Why: The longest-duration assets are most exposed to the discount-rate move, and a higher real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Helps
banks/insurers (reinvestment)cashvalue over growth

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldrate-sensitive REITs/utilities

Caveat: Granularity is daily, so a single-session jump can be noise; a sustained multi-session move is the real signal. Distinguish a growth-driven rise (risk-on) from a supply/term-premium rise (risk-off).

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.40	3.24	+0.16 ▲	2024-05-15
Core CPI	0.30	0.14	+0.16 ▲	2024-05-15
Core PCE	2.77	2.80	-0.03 ▬	2024-05-01
Policy rate	5.50	5.50	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-19
GDP	1.60	3.60	-2.00 ▼	2024-04-25
PMI (mfg)	49.20	50.30	-1.10 ▼	2024-05-01
PMI (svc)	49.40	51.40	-2.00 ▼	2024-05-03
Unemployment	3.90	3.90	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-03
10Y yield	4.42	4.38	+0.04 ▬	2024-05-17
2Y yield	4.83	4.78	+0.05 ▬	2024-05-17
2s10s slope	-0.41	-0.40	-0.01 ▬	2024-05-17
FX vs USD	104.45	104.46	-0.01 ▬	2024-05-17

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.30	0.10	+0.20 ▲	2024-05-11
Policy rate	3.45	3.45	+0.00 ▬	2024-04-22
GDP	5.30	5.20	+0.10 ▬	2024-04-16
PMI (mfg)	49.50	50.40	-0.90 ▼	2024-05-01
PMI (svc)	51.20	53.00	-1.80 ▼	2024-04-30
Unemployment	5.00	5.00	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-01
10Y yield	2.31	2.31	-0.01 ▬	2024-05-17
2Y yield	1.83	1.85	-0.02 ▬	2024-05-17
2s10s slope	0.48	0.47	+0.01 ▬	2024-05-17
FX vs USD	7.22	7.22	-0.00 ▬	2024-05-17

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.40	2.40	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-17
Policy rate	4.50	4.50	+0.00 ▬	2024-04-11
GDP	0.60	0.60	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-17
PMI (mfg)	45.70	45.60	+0.10 ▬	2024-05-02
PMI (svc)	53.30	52.90	+0.40 ▲	2024-05-06
Unemployment	6.50	6.50	+0.00 ▬	2024-05-03
10Y yield	3.12	3.07	+0.05 ▬	2024-05-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.09	1.09	-0.00 ▬	2024-05-17

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.70	2.80	-0.10 ▬	2024-04-19
Core CPI	2.20	2.50	-0.30 ▼	2024-04-19
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2024-04-26
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.60	2.40	+0.20 ▲	2024-04-30
10Y yield	1.07	0.87	+0.20 ▲	2024-05-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	155.38	154.28	+1.10 ▲	2024-05-17

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s ✓: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration ✓: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin ✓: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.