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Macro Regime — 2023-W49

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US · China · EU · Japan · mechanism-first, taught

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2023-12 board

⚠ 0 very-stale + 2 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2023-12); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: stagflationary
China: deflation watch
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: overheating / late-cycle

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2023-12	2023-11	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.26 2023-12-01	0.3 2023-11-01	→ -0.04
Core PCE	% YoY	3.11 2023-12-01	3.29 2023-11-01	▼ -0.18
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	3.32 2023-12-01	3.13 2023-11-01	▲ 0.19
FX vs USD	px	101.33 2023-12-29	103.5 2023-11-30	▼ -2.17
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	46.7 2023-12-01	46.7 2023-11-01	→ 0
PMI (svc)	index	52.7 2023-12-05	51.8 2023-11-03	▲ 0.9
Policy rate	%	5.5 2023-12-31	5.5 2023-11-30	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	-0.35 2023-12-29	-0.36 2023-11-30	→ 0.01
Unemployment	%	3.8 2023-12-01	3.7 2023-11-01	→ 0.1
10Y yield	%	3.88 2023-12-29	4.37 2023-11-30	▼ -0.49
2Y yield	%	4.23 2023-12-29	4.73 2023-11-30	▼ -0.5

China

Indicator	Basis	2023-12	2023-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.5 2023-12-09	-0.2 2023-11-09	▼ -0.3
FX vs USD	px	7.11 2023-12-29	7.08 2023-11-30	→ 0.03
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49 2023-12-01	49.4 2023-11-01	▼ -0.4
PMI (svc)	index	50.4 2023-12-31	50.2 2023-11-30	→ 0.2
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.45 2023-12-20	3.45 2023-11-20	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.35 2023-12-31	0.24 2023-11-30	▲ 0.1
Unemployment	%	5.1 2023-12-01	5 2023-11-01	→ 0.1
10Y yield	%	2.56 2023-12-31	2.67 2023-11-30	▼ -0.11
2Y yield	%	2.21 2023-12-31	2.43 2023-11-30	▼ -0.22

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2023-12	2023-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.4 2023-12-19	2.4 2023-11-30	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	1.11 2023-12-29	1.1 2023-11-30	→ 0.01
GDP	% YoY	-0.6 2023-12-19	-0.5 2023-11-30	→ -0.1
PMI (mfg)	index	44.2 2023-12-15	43.8 2023-11-23	▲ 0.4
PMI (svc)	index	48.1 2023-12-15	48.2 2023-11-23	→ -0.1
Policy rate	%	4.5 2023-12-14	—	—
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	2.86 2023-12-01	3.42 2023-11-01	▼ -0.55

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2023-12	2023-11	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	2.7 2023-12-22	2.7 2023-11-24	→ 0
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.8 2023-12-22	3.3 2023-11-24	▼ -0.5
FX vs USD	px	141.43 2023-12-29	147.04 2023-11-30	▼ -5.61
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	-0.1 2023-12-19	—	—
Unemployment	%	2.6 2023-12-26	—	—
10Y yield	%	0.62 2023-12-01	0.66 2023-11-01	→ -0.04

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

stagflationary

contraction · above target · on hold

Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.

● 1 active

China

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

overheating / late-cycle

unknown · above target · on hold

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M10Yield-curve inversion (2s10s < 0)

Trigger: slope_2s10s: -0.44 → -0.48 (-0.04)

The 10-year yield falls below the 2-year (2s10s2s10s — The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning. inverts).
Why: Normally longer bonds yield more; inversion means the market expects policy ratespolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. to be lower in the future than now — i.e. it expects cuts, usually because growth is set to weaken.
Bank lending margins compress.
Why: Banks borrow short and lend long; when long rates sit below short rates, the spread they earn (net interest marginnet interest margin — The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.) is squeezed, discouraging lending.
Capital rotates toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and durationduration — How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change. as the cycle turns.
Why: An inverted curve is a historically reliable late-cycle warning, so investors position ahead of a slowdown — favoring steady-demand defensives and long bonds that rally when cuts arrive.

Helps
long-duration bonds (as the turn approaches)defensivesquality

Hurts
banks (margin compression)cyclicalssmall-caps

Caveat: Inversion has long and variable lead times to any actual downturn; it's a regime warning, not a timing signal, and can persist for months while risk assets keep rising.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 49.4 → 49 (-0.4)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensives and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 43.8 → 44.2 (+0.4)

Manufacturing PMI is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicals and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensives' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.32	3.20	+0.12 ▲	2023-12-01
Core CPI	0.26	0.20	+0.06 ▬	2023-12-01
Core PCE	3.11	3.50	-0.39 ▼	2023-12-01
Policy rate	5.50	5.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-10
GDP	5.20	4.90	+0.30 ▲	2023-11-29
PMI (mfg)	46.70	46.70	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-01
PMI (svc)	52.70	51.80	+0.90 ▲	2023-12-05
Unemployment	3.70	3.80	-0.10 ▬	2023-12-08
10Y yield	4.23	4.14	+0.09 ▲	2023-12-08
2Y yield	4.71	4.58	+0.13 ▲	2023-12-08
2s10s slope	-0.48	-0.44	-0.04 ▬	2023-12-08
FX vs USD	104.01	103.54	+0.47 ▬	2023-12-08

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.50	-0.20	-0.30 ▼	2023-12-09
Policy rate	3.45	3.45	+0.00 ▬	2023-11-20
GDP	4.90	6.30	-1.40 ▼	2023-10-18
PMI (mfg)	49.00	49.40	-0.40 ▼	2023-12-01
PMI (svc)	50.20	50.60	-0.40 ▼	2023-11-30
Unemployment	5.10	5.00	+0.10 ▬	2023-12-01
10Y yield	2.66	2.66	-0.00 ▬	2023-12-08
2Y yield	2.44	2.44	-0.01 ▬	2023-12-08
2s10s slope	0.23	0.22	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-08
FX vs USD	7.15	7.14	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-08

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.40	2.90	-0.50 ▼	2023-11-30
Policy rate	4.50	4.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-10-26
GDP	-0.50	0.10	-0.60 ▼	2023-11-30
PMI (mfg)	44.20	43.80	+0.40 ▲	2023-12-01
PMI (svc)	48.70	48.20	+0.50 ▲	2023-12-05
Unemployment	6.50	6.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-11-30
10Y yield	2.86	3.42	-0.55 ▼	2023-12-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	1.08	1.08	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-08

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.30	3.00	+0.30 ▲	2023-11-24
Core CPI	2.70	2.60	+0.10 ▲	2023-11-24
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2023-10-31
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.60	2.60	+0.00 ▬	2023-12-01
10Y yield	0.62	0.66	-0.04 ▬	2023-12-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	144.28	147.18	-2.91 ▼	2023-12-08

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s ✓: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration ✓: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin ✓: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.