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Macro Regime — 2023-W11

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2023-03 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2023-03); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: stagflationary
China: disinflationary stall
Euro area: stagflationary
Japan: overheating / late-cycle

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2023-03	2023-02	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.34 2023-03-01	0.49 2023-02-01	▼ -0.15
Core PCE	% YoY	4.78 2023-03-01	4.86 2023-02-01	→ -0.08
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	4.92 2023-03-01	5.96 2023-02-01	▼ -1.04
FX vs USD	px	102.51 2023-03-31	104.87 2023-02-28	▼ -2.36
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	47.7 2023-03-01	47.4 2023-02-01	→ 0.3
PMI (svc)	index	55.1 2023-03-03	55.2 2023-02-03	→ -0.1
Policy rate	%	5 2023-03-31	4.75 2023-02-28	▲ 0.25
2s10s slope	pp	-0.58 2023-03-31	-0.89 2023-02-28	▲ 0.31
Unemployment	%	3.5 2023-03-01	3.6 2023-02-01	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	3.48 2023-03-31	3.92 2023-02-28	▼ -0.44
2Y yield	%	4.06 2023-03-31	4.81 2023-02-28	▼ -0.75

China

Indicator	Basis	2023-03	2023-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1 2023-03-09	2.1 2023-02-10	▼ -1.1
FX vs USD	px	6.87 2023-03-31	6.94 2023-02-28	→ -0.07
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	51.9 2023-03-01	52.6 2023-02-01	▼ -0.7
PMI (svc)	index	58.2 2023-03-31	—	—
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.65 2023-03-20	3.65 2023-02-20	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.46 2023-03-31	0.41 2023-02-28	→ 0.05
Unemployment	%	5.3 2023-03-01	5.6 2023-02-01	▼ -0.3
10Y yield	%	2.85 2023-03-31	2.9 2023-02-28	→ -0.05
2Y yield	%	2.39 2023-03-31	2.49 2023-02-28	▼ -0.1

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2023-03	2023-02	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	6.9 2023-03-31	8.6 2023-02-23	▼ -1.7
FX vs USD	px	1.09 2023-03-31	1.06 2023-02-28	→ 0.03
GDP	% YoY	0.9 2023-03-31	-0.2 2023-02-23	▲ 1.1
PMI (mfg)	index	47.1 2023-03-24	48.5 2023-02-21	▼ -1.4
PMI (svc)	index	55.6 2023-03-24	53 2023-02-21	▲ 2.6
Policy rate	%	3.5 2023-03-16	3 2023-02-02	▲ 0.5
Unemployment	%	6.6 2023-03-31	6.6 2023-02-01	→ 0
10Y yield	%	3.23 2023-03-01	3.22 2023-02-01	→ 0.01

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2023-03	2023-02	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	not recorded
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	not recorded
FX vs USD	px	133.2 2023-03-31	136.32 2023-02-28	▼ -3.12
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	-0.1 2023-03-10	—	—
Unemployment	%	2.6 2023-03-31	—	—
10Y yield	%	0.32 2023-03-01	0.5 2023-02-01	▼ -0.18

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

stagflationary

contraction · above target · on hold

Contracting activity *and* above-target inflation — the hardest mix: the central bank can't ease freely. Real assets, energy and value tend to hold up better than long-duration growth and bonds.

● 2 active

China

disinflationary stall

stall · below target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

○ no change

Euro area ⚠ stale

overheating / late-cycle

stall · above target · tightening

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

overheating / late-cycle

unknown · above target · on hold

● 1 active

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M10Yield-curve inversion (2s10s < 0)

Trigger: slope_2s10s: -0.58 → -0.42 (+0.16)

The 10-year yield falls below the 2-year (2s10s2s10s — The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning. inverts).
Why: Normally longer bonds yield more; inversion means the market expects policy ratespolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. to be lower in the future than now — i.e. it expects cuts, usually because growth is set to weaken.
Bank lending margins compress.
Why: Banks borrow short and lend long; when long rates sit below short rates, the spread they earn (net interest marginnet interest margin — The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.) is squeezed, discouraging lending.
Capital rotates toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and durationduration — How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change. as the cycle turns.
Why: An inverted curve is a historically reliable late-cycle warning, so investors position ahead of a slowdown — favoring steady-demand defensives and long bonds that rally when cuts arrive.

Helps
long-duration bonds (as the turn approaches)defensivesquality

Hurts
banks (margin compression)cyclicalssmall-caps

Caveat: Inversion has long and variable lead times to any actual downturn; it's a regime warning, not a timing signal, and can persist for months while risk assets keep rising.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 47.4 → 47.7 (+0.3)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary. and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensives' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M4Monetary tightening (rate hike)

Trigger: policy_rate: 3 → 3.5 (+0.5)

The central bank raises its policy rate.
Why: It lifts the risk-free baseline and signals an intent to drain liquidity to cool demand or inflation.
Discount ratesdiscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. rise; the most rate-sensitive assets are hit first.
Why: A higher risk-free rate lowers the present value of future cash flows, and long-duration growth, long bonds, and non-yielding gold have the most distant or rate-sensitive payoffs.
The currency firms; exporters and dollar-debt EM borrowers are pressured.
Why: A wider yield advantage pulls in capital and strengthens the currency, which hurts exporters' competitiveness and raises the real burden on dollar-denominated EM debt.

Helps
the tightening currencycash/short-duration real yieldbanks (early-cycle)

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldEM assets

Caveat: Late in a hiking cycle, a hike can paradoxically rally bonds if the market reads it as the last one and pulls forward the eventual cuts.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

M1Inflation surprise (upside)

Trigger: core_cpi: 1.6 → 1.9 (+0.3)

Core inflation comes in higher than the prior reading.
Why: Core strips out food and energy, so a move in it signals persistent, broad price pressure rather than a one-off in volatile items — the kind a central bank reacts to.
The market reprices the policy-rate path higher.
Why: If inflation is stickier than thought, the central bank must keep rates higher for longer to cool it; traders bake that expectation into the whole rate curve immediately, before any actual hike.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. rise, not just nominal yieldsnominal yield — The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation..
Why: The inflation is already in the print, so the jump in nominal yields isn't just compensating for higher inflation — it's a genuine rise in the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders.
A higher real yield is a higher discount rate on future cash flows.
Why: Money earned years from now is discounted back to today at the real rate; when that rate rises, distant cash flows shrink in present-value terms more than near ones.
Long-duration growth equities de-rate hardest; banks and value hold up; the currency firms.
Why: Growth stocks are valued mostly on far-future profits, so a higher discount rate hits them most. Banks earn more as rates rise (wider margins), and value/cyclical earnings sit nearer in time. Higher local rates also pull in foreign capital, lifting the currency.

Helps
financialsvalueUSDshort-duration bonds

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgold (in real terms)

Caveat: Misfires if the print is read as one-off/transitory, or if growth is simultaneously rolling over (a stagflation mix), where cyclicals don't get the usual lift.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	6.00	4.92	+1.08 ▲	2023-03-14
Core CPI	0.50	0.34	+0.16 ▲	2023-03-14
Core PCE	4.78	4.70	+0.08 ▬	2023-03-01
Policy rate	4.75	4.75	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-19
GDP	2.70	2.90	-0.20 ▬	2023-02-23
PMI (mfg)	47.70	47.40	+0.30 ▲	2023-03-01
PMI (svc)	55.10	55.20	-0.10 ▬	2023-03-03
Unemployment	3.60	3.50	+0.10 ▲	2023-03-10
10Y yield	3.39	3.56	-0.17 ▼	2023-03-17
2Y yield	3.81	4.14	-0.33 ▼	2023-03-17
2s10s slope	-0.42	-0.58	+0.16 ▲	2023-03-17
FX vs USD	103.71	104.42	-0.71 ▼	2023-03-17

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.00	2.10	-1.10 ▼	2023-03-09
Policy rate	3.65	3.65	+0.00 ▬	2023-02-20
GDP	2.90	3.90	-1.00 ▼	2023-01-17
PMI (mfg)	51.90	52.60	-0.70 ▼	2023-03-01
PMI (svc)	56.30	54.40	+1.90 ▲	2023-03-01
Unemployment	5.30	5.60	-0.30 ▼	2023-03-01
10Y yield	2.86	2.86	+0.01 ▬	2023-03-17
2Y yield	2.41	2.42	-0.01 ▬	2023-03-17
2s10s slope	0.45	0.43	+0.02 ▬	2023-03-17
FX vs USD	6.90	6.91	-0.01 ▬	2023-03-17

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	8.50	8.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-17
Policy rate	3.50	3.00	+0.50 ▲	2023-03-16
GDP	0.80	0.80	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-17
PMI (mfg)	48.50	48.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-01
PMI (svc)	52.70	53.00	-0.30 ▬	2023-03-03
Unemployment	6.70	6.60	+0.10 ▲	2023-03-02
10Y yield	3.23	3.22	+0.01 ▬	2023-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.06	1.06	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-17

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	4.30	4.00	+0.30 ▲	2023-02-24
Core CPI	1.90	1.60	+0.30 ▲	2023-02-24
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-10
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.50	2.50	+0.00 ▬	2023-03-03
10Y yield	0.32	0.50	-0.18 ▼	2023-03-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	133.37	132.93	+0.44 ▬	2023-03-17

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s ✓: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration ✓: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin ✓: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield ✓: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.