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Macro Regime — 2022-W15

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US · China · EU · Japan · mechanism-first, taught

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2022-04 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2022-04); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: overheating / late-cycle
China: disinflationary stall
Euro area: overheating / late-cycle
Japan: disinflationary stall

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2022-04	2022-03	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.5 2022-04-01	0.27 2022-03-01	▲ 0.23
Core PCE	% YoY	5.35 2022-04-01	5.59 2022-03-01	▼ -0.24
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	8.23 2022-04-01	8.57 2022-03-01	▼ -0.34
FX vs USD	px	102.96 2022-04-29	98.31 2022-03-31	▲ 4.65
GDP	% QoQ ann.	0.6 2022-04-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	57.1 2022-04-01	58.6 2022-03-01	▼ -1.5
PMI (svc)	index	58.3 2022-04-05	56.5 2022-03-03	▲ 1.8
Policy rate	%	0.5 2022-04-30	0.5 2022-03-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.19 2022-04-29	0.04 2022-03-31	▲ 0.15
Unemployment	%	3.7 2022-04-01	3.7 2022-03-01	→ 0
10Y yield	%	2.89 2022-04-29	2.32 2022-03-31	▲ 0.57
2Y yield	%	2.7 2022-04-29	2.28 2022-03-31	▲ 0.42

China

Indicator	Basis	2022-04	2022-03	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.5 2022-04-11	0.9 2022-03-09	▲ 0.6
FX vs USD	px	6.63 2022-04-29	6.35 2022-03-31	→ 0.28
GDP	% YoY	4.8 2022-04-18	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	47.4 2022-04-01	49.5 2022-03-01	▼ -2.1
PMI (svc)	index	41.9 2022-04-30	48.4 2022-03-31	▼ -6.5
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.7 2022-04-20	3.7 2022-03-21	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.49 2022-04-29	0.48 2022-03-31	→ 0.01
Unemployment	%	6.1 2022-04-01	5.8 2022-03-01	▲ 0.3
10Y yield	%	2.84 2022-04-29	2.79 2022-03-31	▲ 0.05
2Y yield	%	2.35 2022-04-29	2.31 2022-03-31	→ 0.04

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2022-04	2022-03	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	7.5 2022-04-29	5.9 2022-03-17	▲ 1.6
FX vs USD	px	1.05 2022-04-29	1.12 2022-03-31	→ -0.07
GDP	% YoY	0.6 2022-04-29	0.9 2022-03-17	▼ -0.3
PMI (mfg)	index	55.3 2022-04-22	57 2022-03-24	▼ -1.7
PMI (svc)	index	57.7 2022-04-22	54.8 2022-03-24	▲ 2.9
Policy rate	%	0 2022-04-14	0 2022-03-10	→ 0
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	1.57 2022-04-01	1.05 2022-03-01	▲ 0.51

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2022-04	2022-03	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-1.6 2022-04-22	2.1 2022-03-24	▼ -3.7
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.2 2022-04-22	3.3 2022-03-24	▼ -2.1
FX vs USD	px	130.81 2022-04-29	122.02 2022-03-31	▲ 8.79
GDP	% YoY	-0.06 2022-04-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	-0.1 2022-04-28	-0.1 2022-03-18	→ 0
Unemployment	%	2.6 2022-04-26	2.7 2022-03-29	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	0.21 2022-04-01	0.21 2022-03-01	→ 0.01

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

overheating / late-cycle

expansion · above target · on hold

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

● 2 active

China

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

overheating / late-cycle

expansion · above target · on hold

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

overheating / late-cycle

unknown · above target · on hold

● 1 active

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

M2Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation)

Trigger: core_cpi: 0.5 → 0.3 (-0.2)

Core inflation falls more than the prior reading.
Why: A faster-than-expected cooling in the persistent part of inflation tells the market the central bank has more room to ease.
The market prices an earlier or deeper easing path.
Why: Lower inflation removes the reason to keep rates high, so traders pull forward expected cuts into the curve.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. fall.
Why: The expected policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. drops while inflation expectations stay anchored, so the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders declines.
A lower discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. re-rates long-duration assets upward; long bonds rally.
Why: Future cash flows are now discounted less harshly, lifting growth equities most; bond prices rise mechanically as their yields fall.

Helps
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgoldrate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs)

Hurts
USD (vs easing-laggard peers)bank net-interest margins

Caveat: Misfires if disinflation is driven by demand collapse rather than supply normalization — then the growth scare dominates and risk assets fall despite lower yields.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M9Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise

Trigger: yield_10y: 2.7 → 2.83 (+0.13)

The 10-year yield jumps.
Why: The long yield sets the cost of long-term money for the whole economy and the discount rate for the longest cash flows.
The discount rate on all long-dated cash flows rises.
Why: Equity valuations and long-bond prices are present values of distant cash flows; a higher long yield shrinks those present values.
Long-duration growth equities compress, long bonds fall, gold is pressured.
Why: The longest-duration assets are most exposed to the discount-rate move, and a higher real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Helps
banks/insurers (reinvestment)cashvalue over growth

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldrate-sensitive REITs/utilities

Caveat: Granularity is daily, so a single-session jump can be noise; a sustained multi-session move is the real signal. Distinguish a growth-driven rise (risk-on) from a supply/term-premium rise (risk-off).

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

China

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 49.5 → 47.4 (-2.1)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M9Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise

Trigger: yield_10y: 1.05349 → 1.56788 (+0.51439)

⚠ Fired on a stale print: yield_10y as of 2022-04-01 (16d old). The change may predate current conditions — treat as provisional.

The 10-year yield jumps.
Why: The long yield sets the cost of long-term money for the whole economy and the discount rate for the longest cash flows.
The discount rate on all long-dated cash flows rises.
Why: Equity valuations and long-bond prices are present values of distant cash flows; a higher long yield shrinks those present values.
Long-duration growth equities compress, long bonds fall, gold is pressured.
Why: The longest-duration assets are most exposed to the discount-rate move, and a higher real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Helps
banks/insurers (reinvestment)cashvalue over growth

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldrate-sensitive REITs/utilities

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M1Inflation surprise (upside)

Trigger: core_cpi: -1.8 → 2.1 (+3.9)

Core inflation comes in higher than the prior reading.
Why: Core strips out food and energy, so a move in it signals persistent, broad price pressure rather than a one-off in volatile items — the kind a central bank reacts to.
The market reprices the policy-rate path higher.
Why: If inflation is stickier than thought, the central bank must keep rates higher for longer to cool it; traders bake that expectation into the whole rate curve immediately, before any actual hike.
Real yields rise, not just nominal yieldsnominal yield — The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation..
Why: The inflation is already in the print, so the jump in nominal yields isn't just compensating for higher inflation — it's a genuine rise in the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders.
A higher real yield is a higher discount rate on future cash flows.
Why: Money earned years from now is discounted back to today at the real rate; when that rate rises, distant cash flows shrink in present-value terms more than near ones.
Long-duration growth equities de-rate hardest; banks and value hold up; the currency firms.
Why: Growth stocks are valued mostly on far-future profits, so a higher discount rate hits them most. Banks earn more as rates rise (wider margins), and value/cyclical earnings sit nearer in time. Higher local rates also pull in foreign capital, lifting the currency.

Helps
financialsvalueUSDshort-duration bonds

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgold (in real terms)

Caveat: Misfires if the print is read as one-off/transitory, or if growth is simultaneously rolling over (a stagflation mix), where cyclicals don't get the usual lift.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	8.50	8.23	+0.27 ▲	2022-04-12
Core CPI	0.30	0.50	-0.20 ▼	2022-04-12
Core PCE	5.35	5.40	-0.05 ▬	2022-04-01
Policy rate	0.50	0.50	+0.00 ▬	2022-04-17
GDP	0.60	6.90	-6.30 ▼	2022-04-01
PMI (mfg)	57.10	58.60	-1.50 ▼	2022-04-01
PMI (svc)	58.30	56.50	+1.80 ▲	2022-04-05
Unemployment	3.70	3.80	-0.10 ▬	2022-04-01
10Y yield	2.83	2.70	+0.13 ▲	2022-04-14
2Y yield	2.47	2.37	+0.10 ▲	2022-04-14
2s10s slope	0.36	0.33	+0.03 ▬	2022-04-14
FX vs USD	100.32	99.88	+0.44 ▬	2022-04-14

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.50	0.90	+0.60 ▲	2022-04-11
Policy rate	3.70	3.70	+0.00 ▬	2022-03-21
GDP	4.00	4.90	-0.90 ▼	2022-01-17
PMI (mfg)	47.40	49.50	-2.10 ▼	2022-04-01
PMI (svc)	48.40	51.60	-3.20 ▼	2022-03-31
Unemployment	6.10	5.80	+0.30 ▲	2022-04-01
10Y yield	2.76	2.77	-0.01 ▬	2022-04-15
2Y yield	2.24	2.26	-0.02 ▬	2022-04-15
2s10s slope	0.52	0.50	+0.02 ▬	2022-04-15
FX vs USD	6.38	6.37	+0.01 ▬	2022-04-15

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	7.50	5.90	+1.60 ▲	2022-04-01
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2022-04-14
GDP	2.50	0.90	+1.60 ▲	2022-04-01
PMI (mfg)	56.50	57.00	-0.50 ▼	2022-04-01
PMI (svc)	55.60	54.80	+0.80 ▲	2022-04-05
Unemployment	6.80	6.80	+0.00 ▬	2022-03-31
10Y yield	1.57	1.05	+0.51 ▲	2022-04-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.08	1.09	-0.01 ▬	2022-04-15

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.30	0.90	+2.40 ▲	2022-03-24
Core CPI	2.10	-1.80	+3.90 ▲	2022-03-24
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2022-03-18
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.70	2.80	-0.10 ▬	2022-03-29
10Y yield	0.21	0.21	+0.01 ▬	2022-04-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	126.18	125.38	+0.80 ▲	2022-04-15

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield ✓: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.