Core inflation comes in higher than the prior reading.
Why: Core strips out food and energy, so a move in it signals persistent, broad price pressure rather than a one-off in volatile items — the kind a central bank reacts to.
The market reprices the policy-rate path higher.
Why: If inflation is stickier than thought, the central bank must keep rates higher for longer to cool it; traders bake that expectation into the whole rate curve immediately, before any actual hike.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. rise, not just nominal yieldsnominal yield — The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation..
Why: The inflation is already in the print, so the jump in nominal yields isn't just compensating for higher inflation — it's a genuine rise in the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders.
A higher real yield is a higher discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. on future cash flows.
Why: Money earned years from now is discounted back to today at the real rate; when that rate rises, distant cash flows shrink in present-value terms more than near ones.
Long-duration growth equities de-rate hardest; banks and value hold up; the currency firms.
Why: Growth stocks are valued mostly on far-future profits, so a higher discount rate hits them most. Banks earn more as rates rise (wider margins), and value/cyclical earnings sit nearer in time. Higher local rates also pull in foreign capital, lifting the currency.

Helps
financialsvalueUSDshort-duration bonds

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgold (in real terms)

Caveat: Misfires if the print is read as one-off/transitory, or if growth is simultaneously rolling over (a stagflation mix), where cyclicals don't get the usual lift.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

M6Growth slowdown (deepening contraction)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 50.1 → 49.1 (-1)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 and still falling.
Why: Below 50 means more firms are contracting than expanding; *falling* means the contraction is deepening, not bottoming — that combination is what leads earnings revisions down.
Investors rotate toward defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. and government bonds.
Why: When growth is deteriorating, steady-demand sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare) hold earnings better, and government bonds act as a hedge that rallies if the slowdown deepens further.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and industrial commodities underperform.
Why: These are geared to the physical cycle and to leverage, so worsening activity hits their earnings and risk appetite hardest; commodity demand softens with industrial output.

Helps
defensive sectors (staples, utilities, healthcare)long government bondsquality/large-cap

Hurts
cyclicalssmall-capsEM equityindustrial commodities

Caveat: A shallow dip just below 50 that quickly reverses ('soft patch') doesn't trigger the full defensive rotation; the level must persist.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M9Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise

Trigger: yield_10y: 0.372634 → 0.553776 (+0.181142)

⚠ Fired on a stale print: yield_10y as of 2020-04-01 (18d old). The change may predate current conditions — treat as provisional.

The 10-year yield jumps.
Why: The long yield sets the cost of long-term money for the whole economy and the discount rate for the longest cash flows.
The discount rate on all long-dated cash flows rises.
Why: Equity valuations and long-bond prices are present values of distant cash flows; a higher long yield shrinks those present values.
Long-duration growth equities compress, long bonds fall, gold is pressured.
Why: The longest-duration assets are most exposed to the discount-rate move, and a higher real yield raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Helps
banks/insurers (reinvestment)cashvalue over growth

Hurts
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated bondsgoldrate-sensitive REITs/utilities

Caveat: Granularity is daily, so a single-session jump can be noise; a sustained multi-session move is the real signal. Distinguish a growth-driven rise (risk-on) from a supply/term-premium rise (risk-off).

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M2Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation)

Trigger: core_cpi: 0.4 → 0.2 (-0.2)

Core inflation falls more than the prior reading.
Why: A faster-than-expected cooling in the persistent part of inflation tells the market the central bank has more room to ease.
The market prices an earlier or deeper easing path.
Why: Lower inflation removes the reason to keep rates high, so traders pull forward expected cuts into the curve.
Real yields fall.
Why: The expected policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. drops while inflation expectations stay anchored, so the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders declines.
A lower discount rate re-rates long-duration assets upward; long bonds rally.
Why: Future cash flows are now discounted less harshly, lifting growth equities most; bond prices rise mechanically as their yields fall.

Helps
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgoldrate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs)

Hurts
USD (vs easing-laggard peers)bank net-interest margins

Caveat: Misfires if disinflation is driven by demand collapse rather than supply normalization — then the growth scare dominates and risk assets fall despite lower yields.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.50	0.31	+1.19 ▲	2020-04-10
Core CPI	-0.10	-0.49	+0.39 ▲	2020-04-10
Core PCE	1.00	1.80	-0.80 ▼	2020-04-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2020-04-19
GDP	-28.00	2.10	-30.10 ▼	2020-04-01
PMI (mfg)	49.10	50.10	-1.00 ▼	2020-04-01
PMI (svc)	52.50	57.30	-4.80 ▼	2020-04-03
Unemployment	4.40	14.80	-10.40 ▼	2020-04-03
10Y yield	0.65	0.61	+0.04 ▬	2020-04-17
2Y yield	0.20	0.20	+0.00 ▬	2020-04-17
2s10s slope	0.45	0.41	+0.04 ▬	2020-04-17
FX vs USD	99.78	100.03	-0.25 ▬	2020-04-17

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	4.30	5.20	-0.90 ▼	2020-04-10
Policy rate	4.05	4.05	+0.00 ▬	2020-03-20
GDP	-6.80	6.00	-12.80 ▼	2020-04-17
PMI (mfg)	50.80	52.00	-1.20 ▼	2020-04-01
PMI (svc)	52.30	29.60	+22.70 ▲	2020-03-31
Unemployment	6.00	5.90	+0.10 ▬	2020-04-01
10Y yield	2.56	2.53	+0.03 ▬	2020-04-17
2Y yield	1.57	1.57	+0.00 ▬	2020-04-17
2s10s slope	0.99	0.96	+0.03 ▬	2020-04-17
FX vs USD	7.08	7.07	+0.01 ▬	2020-04-17

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.70	0.70	+0.00 ▬	2020-04-17
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2020-03-12
GDP	0.50	0.50	+0.00 ▬	2020-04-17
PMI (mfg)	44.50	44.80	-0.30 ▬	2020-04-01
PMI (svc)	26.40	28.40	-2.00 ▼	2020-04-03
Unemployment	7.30	7.40	-0.10 ▼	2020-04-01
10Y yield	0.55	0.37	+0.18 ▲	2020-04-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	1.09	1.09	-0.00 ▬	2020-04-17

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.40	0.70	-0.30 ▼	2020-03-19
Core CPI	0.20	0.40	-0.20 ▼	2020-03-19
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2020-03-16
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.40	2.40	+0.00 ▬	2020-03-31
10Y yield	-0.04	0.01	-0.04 ▬	2020-04-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	107.94	107.61	+0.34 ▬	2020-04-17

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield ✓: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.