Macro Intelligence · Weekly · deep read

Macro Regime — 2017-W50

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US · China · EU · Japan · mechanism-first, taught

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2017-12 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2017-12); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: expansion, at target
China: stall-speed, at target
Euro area: expansion, at target
Japan: disinflationary stall

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2017-12	2017-11	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.21 2017-12-01	0.11 2017-11-01	→ 0.1
Core PCE	% YoY	1.58 2017-12-01	1.55 2017-11-01	→ 0.03
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.13 2017-12-01	2.17 2017-11-01	→ -0.04
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	58.2 2017-12-01	58.7 2017-11-01	▼ -0.5
PMI (svc)	index	57.4 2017-12-05	60.1 2017-11-03	▼ -2.7
Policy rate	%	1.5 2017-12-31	1.25 2017-11-30	▲ 0.25
2s10s slope	pp	0.51 2017-12-29	0.64 2017-11-30	▼ -0.13
Unemployment	%	4.1 2017-12-01	4.2 2017-11-01	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	2.4 2017-12-29	2.42 2017-11-30	→ -0.02
2Y yield	%	1.89 2017-12-29	1.78 2017-11-30	▲ 0.11

China

Indicator	Basis	2017-12	2017-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.7 2017-12-09	1.9 2017-11-09	▼ -0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	51.6 2017-12-01	51.8 2017-11-01	→ -0.2
PMI (svc)	index	55 2017-12-31	54.8 2017-11-30	→ 0.2
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	4.3 2017-12-29	4.3 2017-11-30	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.1 2017-12-31	0.19 2017-11-30	▼ -0.1
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.88 2017-12-31	3.89 2017-11-30	→ -0.01
2Y yield	%	3.79 2017-12-31	3.7 2017-11-30	▲ 0.09

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2017-12	2017-11	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.5 2017-12-18	1.5 2017-11-30	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	0.1 2017-12-18	0.1 2017-11-16	→ 0
PMI (mfg)	index	60.6 2017-12-14	60 2017-11-23	▲ 0.6
PMI (svc)	index	56.5 2017-12-14	56.2 2017-11-23	→ 0.3
Policy rate	%	0 2017-12-14	—	—
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	0.88 2017-12-01	0.95 2017-11-01	▼ -0.07

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2017-12	2017-11	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	0.1 2017-12-26	—	—
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0.6 2017-12-26	—	—
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	-0.1 2017-12-21	—	—
Unemployment	%	2.7 2017-12-26	—	—
10Y yield	%	0.04 2017-12-01	0.04 2017-11-01	→ 0.01

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

expansion, at target

expansion · at target · on hold

Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.

○ no change

China

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

Euro area ⚠ stale

expansion, at target

expansion · at target · on hold

Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 60.1 → 60.6 (+0.5)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.20	2.13	+0.07 ▬	2017-12-13
Core CPI	0.10	0.21	-0.11 ▼	2017-12-13
Core PCE	1.58	1.40	+0.18 ▲	2017-12-01
Policy rate	1.50	1.50	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-17
GDP	3.30	3.00	+0.30 ▲	2017-11-29
PMI (mfg)	58.20	58.70	-0.50 ▼	2017-12-01
PMI (svc)	57.40	60.10	-2.70 ▼	2017-12-05
Unemployment	4.10	4.10	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-08
10Y yield	2.35	2.35	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-15
2Y yield	1.84	1.82	+0.02 ▬	2017-12-15
2s10s slope	0.51	0.53	-0.02 ▬	2017-12-15
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.70	1.90	-0.20 ▼	2017-12-09
Policy rate	4.30	4.30	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-15
GDP	6.80	6.90	-0.10 ▬	2017-10-19
PMI (mfg)	51.60	51.80	-0.20 ▬	2017-12-01
PMI (svc)	54.80	54.30	+0.50 ▲	2017-11-30
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.89	3.91	-0.02 ▬	2017-12-15
2Y yield	3.77	3.77	-0.00 ▬	2017-12-15
2s10s slope	0.12	0.14	-0.02 ▬	2017-12-15
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.50	1.40	+0.10 ▲	2017-11-30
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-14
GDP	0.10	0.40	-0.30 ▼	2017-11-16
PMI (mfg)	60.60	60.10	+0.50 ▲	2017-12-14
PMI (svc)	56.50	56.20	+0.30 ▬	2017-12-14
Unemployment	8.80	8.90	-0.10 ▬	2017-11-30
10Y yield	0.88	0.95	-0.07 ▼	2017-12-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	0.20	0.70	-0.50 ▼	2017-12-01
Core CPI	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-01
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2017-10-31
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.80	2.80	+0.00 ▬	2017-12-01
10Y yield	0.04	0.04	+0.01 ▬	2017-12-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.