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Macro Regime — 2012-W38

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2012-09 board

⚠ 2 very-stale + 0 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2012-09); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: stall-speed, at target
China: stall-speed, at target
Euro area: disinflationary stall
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2012-09	2012-08	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.19 2012-09-01	0.11 2012-08-01	→ 0.08
Core PCE	% YoY	1.69 2012-09-01	1.64 2012-08-01	→ 0.05
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.95 2012-09-01	1.69 2012-08-01	▲ 0.26
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49.6 2012-09-04	49.8 2012-08-01	→ -0.2
PMI (svc)	index	53.7 2012-09-06	52.6 2012-08-03	▲ 1.1
Policy rate	%	0.25 2012-09-30	0.25 2012-08-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1.42 2012-09-28	1.35 2012-08-31	▲ 0.07
Unemployment	%	7.8 2012-09-01	8.1 2012-08-01	▼ -0.3
10Y yield	%	1.65 2012-09-28	1.57 2012-08-31	▲ 0.08
2Y yield	%	0.23 2012-09-28	0.22 2012-08-31	→ 0.01

China

Indicator	Basis	2012-09	2012-08	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2 2012-09-09	1.8 2012-08-09	▲ 0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	49.8 2012-09-01	49.2 2012-08-01	▲ 0.6
PMI (svc)	index	56.3 2012-09-03	55.6 2012-08-03	▲ 0.7
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	not recorded
2s10s slope	pp	0.53 2012-09-29	0.53 2012-08-31	→ -0
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.46 2012-09-29	3.39 2012-08-31	▲ 0.06
2Y yield	%	2.93 2012-09-29	2.86 2012-08-31	▲ 0.07

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2012-09	2012-08	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	2.7 2012-09-28	2.6 2012-08-31	→ 0.1
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	0.4 2012-09-01	-0.5 2012-08-01	▲ 0.9
PMI (mfg)	index	46 2012-09-20	45.3 2012-08-23	▲ 0.7
PMI (svc)	index	46 2012-09-20	47.5 2012-08-23	▼ -1.5
Policy rate	%	0.75 2012-09-06	0.75 2012-08-02	→ 0
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	2.42 2012-09-01	3.01 2012-08-01	▼ -0.59

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2012-09	2012-08	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-0.5 2012-09-25	-0.6 2012-08-25	→ 0.1
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.4 2012-09-25	-0.4 2012-08-25	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2012-09-19	0.1 2012-08-09	→ 0
Unemployment	%	4.2 2012-09-29	4.3 2012-08-29	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	0.76 2012-09-01	0.8 2012-08-01	→ -0.04

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

○ no change

China

stall-speed, at target

stall · at target · on hold

Growth hovering near flat with inflation roughly at target. A balanced, low-conviction regime — direction depends on which way growth breaks next; watch PMI for the tell.

● 1 active

Euro area ⚠ stale

disinflationary stall

contraction · at target · on hold

Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.

● 1 active

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 49.2 → 49.8 (+0.6)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary. and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

Caveat: A one-month uptick that doesn't persist is a head-fake; the turn needs follow-through, and a sub-50 level still means activity is contracting in absolute terms — this is an inflection signal, not an all-clear.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).
Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise The 10-year yield isn't spiking, so this channel is dormant. A jump of ≥0.1pp would fire it — watch it because it compresses the highest-multiple growth names and long bonds fastest.

Euro area

M13Contraction easing (sub-50 PMI, rising)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 45.1 → 46 (+0.9)

Manufacturing PMI is below 50 but rising.
Why: Activity is still contracting in absolute terms (below 50), but the rate of contraction is easing — the second derivative has turned up, which historically clusters near cyclical lows.
Forward-looking investors start to price the trough.
Why: Markets discount the turn before it completes; an improving-but-sub-50 PMI often coincides with the low in cyclical risk assets, well before the PMI itself crosses back above 50.
Early-cycle cyclicals and small-caps tend to lead off the low; defensives' relative edge fades.
Why: The names most beaten down in the contraction have the most operating leverage to even a marginal improvement, so they re-rate first when the deterioration stops.

Helps
early-cycle cyclicalssmall-capsEM equity

Hurts
defensives (relative)long government bonds (if the recovery firms)

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.70	1.95	-0.25 ▼	2012-09-14
Core CPI	0.10	0.19	-0.09 ▬	2012-09-14
Core PCE	1.69	1.64	+0.05 ▬	2012-09-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2012-09-23
GDP	1.70	1.50	+0.20 ▬	2012-08-29
PMI (mfg)	49.60	49.80	-0.20 ▬	2012-09-04
PMI (svc)	53.70	52.60	+1.10 ▲	2012-09-06
Unemployment	8.10	7.80	+0.30 ▲	2012-09-07
10Y yield	1.77	1.80	-0.03 ▬	2012-09-21
2Y yield	0.27	0.27	+0.00 ▬	2012-09-21
2s10s slope	1.50	1.53	-0.03 ▬	2012-09-21
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.00	1.80	+0.20 ▲	2012-09-09
Policy rate	n/a
GDP	7.60	8.10	-0.50 ▼	2012-07-13
PMI (mfg)	49.80	49.20	+0.60 ▲	2012-09-01
PMI (svc)	56.30	55.60	+0.70 ▲	2012-09-03
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.50	3.52	-0.02 ▬	2012-09-21
2Y yield	3.03	3.05	-0.02 ▬	2012-09-21
2s10s slope	0.47	0.46	+0.01 ▬	2012-09-21
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	2.60	2.60	+0.00 ▬	2012-09-14
Policy rate	0.75	0.75	+0.00 ▬	2012-09-06
GDP	0.40	-0.50	+0.90 ▲	2012-09-01
PMI (mfg)	46.00	45.10	+0.90 ▲	2012-09-20
PMI (svc)	46.00	47.20	-1.20 ▼	2012-09-20
Unemployment	11.30	11.20	+0.10 ▲	2012-08-31
10Y yield	2.42	3.01	-0.59 ▼	2012-09-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.40	-0.20	-0.20 ▼	2012-08-25
Core CPI	-0.60	-0.60	+0.00 ▬	2012-08-25
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2012-09-19
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	4.30	4.30	+0.00 ▬	2012-08-29
10Y yield	0.76	0.80	-0.04 ▬	2012-09-01 ⚠⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.