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Macro Regime — 2010-W23

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↩ Home Macro index ← 2010-06 board

⚠ 0 very-stale + 2 stale series across the four blocs — flagged inline.

Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2010-06); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: expansion, at target
China: overheating / late-cycle
Euro area: expansion, at target
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2010-06	2010-05	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.1 2010-06-01	0.06 2010-05-01	→ 0.04
Core PCE	% YoY	1.56 2010-06-01	1.64 2010-05-01	→ -0.08
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.12 2010-06-01	2 2010-05-01	▼ -0.88
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% QoQ ann.	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	59.7 2010-06-01	60.4 2010-05-03	▼ -0.7
PMI (svc)	index	55.4 2010-06-03	55.4 2010-05-05	→ 0
Policy rate	%	0.25 2010-06-30	0.25 2010-05-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	2.36 2010-06-30	2.55 2010-05-28	▼ -0.19
Unemployment	%	9.4 2010-06-01	9.6 2010-05-01	▼ -0.2
10Y yield	%	2.97 2010-06-30	3.31 2010-05-28	▼ -0.34
2Y yield	%	0.61 2010-06-30	0.76 2010-05-28	▼ -0.15

China

Indicator	Basis	2010-06	2010-05	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	3.1 2010-06-01	2.8 2010-05-01	▲ 0.3
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)	index	52.1 2010-06-01	53.9 2010-05-01	▼ -1.8
PMI (svc)	index	58.1 2010-06-01	57.8 2010-05-01	→ 0.3
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	not recorded
2s10s slope	pp	1.01 2010-06-30	1.16 2010-05-31	▼ -0.15
Unemployment	%	not recorded
10Y yield	%	3.28 2010-06-30	3.24 2010-05-31	→ 0.04
2Y yield	%	2.27 2010-06-30	2.09 2010-05-31	▲ 0.18

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2010-06	2010-05	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.4 2010-06-30	1.6 2010-05-31	▼ -0.2
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	0.1 2010-06-01	0.5 2010-05-01	▼ -0.4
PMI (mfg)	index	55.6 2010-06-23	55.9 2010-05-21	→ -0.3
PMI (svc)	index	55.4 2010-06-23	56 2010-05-21	▼ -0.6
Policy rate	%	1 2010-06-10	1 2010-05-06	→ 0
Unemployment	%	10.1 2010-06-01	—	—
10Y yield	%	3.69 2010-06-01	3.68 2010-05-01	→ 0.01

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2010-06	2010-05	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-1.6 2010-06-25	-1.6 2010-05-26	→ 0
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.9 2010-06-25	-1.2 2010-05-26	▲ 0.3
FX vs USD	px	not recorded
GDP	% YoY	not recorded
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	0.1 2010-06-15	0.1 2010-05-21	→ 0
Unemployment	%	5.1 2010-06-29	5.1 2010-05-30	→ 0
10Y yield	%	1.08 2010-06-01	1.26 2010-05-01	▼ -0.18

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · below target · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

○ no change

China

overheating / late-cycle

expansion · above target · on hold

Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.

○ no change

Euro area ⚠ stale

expansion, at target

expansion · at target · on hold

Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.

○ no change

Japan ⚠ stale

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

● 1 active

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).
Long-end yield spike / term-premium rise The 10-year yield isn't spiking, so this channel is dormant. A jump of ≥0.1pp would fire it — watch it because it compresses the highest-multiple growth names and long bonds fastest.

Euro area

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Japan

M2Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation)

Trigger: core_cpi: -1.1 → -1.6 (-0.5)

Core inflation falls more than the prior reading.
Why: A faster-than-expected cooling in the persistent part of inflation tells the market the central bank has more room to ease.
The market prices an earlier or deeper easing path.
Why: Lower inflation removes the reason to keep rates high, so traders pull forward expected cuts into the curve.
Real yieldsreal yield — The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation. fall.
Why: The expected policy ratepolicy rate — The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates. drops while inflation expectations stay anchored, so the inflation-adjusted return demanded by lenders declines.
A lower discount ratediscount rate — The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now. re-rates long-duration assets upward; long bonds rally.
Why: Future cash flows are now discounted less harshly, lifting growth equities most; bond prices rise mechanically as their yields fall.

Helps
long-duration growth equitieslong-dated government bondsgoldrate-sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs)

Hurts
USD (vs easing-laggard peers)bank net-interest margins

Caveat: Misfires if disinflation is driven by demand collapse rather than supply normalization — then the growth scare dominates and risk assets fall despite lower yields.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.12	2.20	-1.08 ▼	2010-06-01
Core CPI	0.10	0.00	+0.10 ▬	2010-06-01
Core PCE	1.56	1.64	-0.08 ▬	2010-06-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2010-06-13
GDP	3.00	3.20	-0.20 ▼	2010-05-27
PMI (mfg)	59.70	60.40	-0.70 ▼	2010-06-01
PMI (svc)	55.40	55.40	+0.00 ▬	2010-06-03
Unemployment	9.70	9.40	+0.30 ▲	2010-06-04
10Y yield	3.24	3.33	-0.09 ▼	2010-06-11
2Y yield	0.75	0.79	-0.04 ▬	2010-06-11
2s10s slope	2.49	2.54	-0.05 ▬	2010-06-11
FX vs USD	n/a

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	3.10	2.80	+0.30 ▲	2010-06-01
Policy rate	n/a
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	52.10	53.90	-1.80 ▼	2010-06-01
PMI (svc)	58.10	57.80	+0.30 ▲	2010-06-01
Unemployment	n/a
10Y yield	3.33	3.33	+0.00 ▬	2010-06-13
2Y yield	2.17	2.17	+0.00 ▬	2010-06-13
2s10s slope	1.16	1.16	-0.00 ▬	2010-06-13
FX vs USD	n/a

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.60	1.50	+0.10 ▲	2010-05-31
Policy rate	1.00	1.00	+0.00 ▬	2010-06-10
GDP	0.10	0.50	-0.40 ▼	2010-06-01
PMI (mfg)	55.80	55.90	-0.10 ▬	2010-06-01
PMI (svc)	56.20	56.00	+0.20 ▬	2010-06-03
Unemployment	10.10	10.00	+0.10 ▬	2010-06-01
10Y yield	3.69	3.68	+0.01 ▬	2010-06-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-1.20	-1.10	-0.10 ▬	2010-05-26
Core CPI	-1.60	-1.10	-0.50 ▼	2010-05-26
Policy rate	0.10	0.10	+0.00 ▬	2010-05-21
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	5.10	5.10	+0.00 ▬	2010-05-30
10Y yield	1.08	1.26	-0.18 ▼	2010-06-01 ⚠
FX vs USD	n/a

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate ✓: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate ✓: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield ✓: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.