Macro Intelligence · Half-year board

2010-H1

Half-year aggregate · 25 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Half-year

2010-H1 — 25 weeks across 2 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2010-H1 vs 2009-H2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2010-H1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 25 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W09: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W13: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W17: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

disinflationary stall → expansion, at target

W03: disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation · W13: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
M9 ×8 yield_spike

Japan

M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: -0.11 → 0.10 +0.21 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-17)
core_pce: 1.69 → 1.56 -0.13 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.62 → 2.00 -0.62 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-14)
gdp: 1.90 → 2.70 +0.80 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-25)
pmi_mfg: 55.90 → 59.70 +3.80 (2010-01-04 → 2010-06-01)
pmi_svc: 50.10 → 55.40 +5.30 (2010-01-06 → 2010-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2010-01-10 → 2010-06-27)
slope_2s10s: 2.87 → 2.47 -0.40 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)
unemployment: 10.00 → 9.70 -0.30 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-04)
yield_10y: 3.83 → 3.12 -0.71 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)
yield_2y: 0.96 → 0.65 -0.31 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 3.10 +1.20 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 55.80 → 52.10 -3.70 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)
pmi_svc: 58.80 → 58.10 -0.70 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)
slope_2s10s: 1.65 → 1.10 -0.56 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)
yield_10y: 3.66 → 3.38 -0.28 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)
yield_2y: 2.01 → 2.29 +0.28 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.60 +0.70 (2010-01-05 → 2010-06-16)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 51.60 → 55.60 +4.00 (2010-01-04 → 2010-06-23)
pmi_svc: 53.60 → 55.40 +1.80 (2010-01-06 → 2010-06-23)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2009-12-03 → 2010-06-10)
unemployment: 10.00 → 10.10 +0.10 (2010-01-08 → 2010-06-01)
yield_10y: 4.10 → 3.69 -0.41 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.00 → -1.60 -0.60 (2009-12-26 → 2010-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -1.90 → -0.90 +1.00 (2009-12-26 → 2010-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2009-12-18 → 2010-06-15)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.10 -0.10 (2009-12-30 → 2010-05-30)
yield_10y: 1.31 → 1.08 -0.23 (2010-01-01 → 2010-06-01)

Busiest week: 2010-W04 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W25 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose