Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2010-08

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2010-07daily glanceweekly archive →2010-09 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2010-08 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.07 → 0.10 +0.03 (2010-08-01 → 2010-08-13)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.15 → 1.20 +0.05 (2010-08-01 → 2010-08-14)
  • gdp: 2.40 → 1.60 -0.80 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 55.50 -0.70 (2010-07-01 → 2010-08-02)
  • pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.30 +0.50 (2010-07-06 → 2010-08-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2010-08-01 → 2010-08-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.39 → 2.10 -0.29 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
  • unemployment: 9.50 → 9.50 0.00 (2010-08-01 → 2010-08-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.94 → 2.66 -0.28 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.55 → 0.56 +0.01 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
China
  • slope_2s10s: 1.09 → 1.08 -0.01 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.30 → 3.24 -0.06 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.21 → 2.15 -0.05 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.50 → 55.00 -1.50 (2010-07-22 → 2010-08-23)
  • pmi_svc: 56.00 → 55.60 -0.40 (2010-07-22 → 2010-08-23)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2010-07-08 → 2010-08-05)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.50 → -1.50 0.00 (2010-07-26 → 2010-08-25)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.70 → -0.90 -0.20 (2010-07-26 → 2010-08-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-07-15 → 2010-08-10)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.00 -0.20 (2010-07-30 → 2010-08-29)

Busiest week: 2010-W30 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2010-W31 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2010-08 vs 2010-07, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2010-08).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2010-W30

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W31

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W32

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W33

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2010-W34

● 2 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
China
overheating / late-cycle
stall · above target · on hold
Above-trend growth with above-target inflation. Late-cycle: cyclicals and inflation beneficiaries can still run, but the central bank is biased to tighten, so duration and high-multiple growth are exposed.
● 1 active
Euro area ⚠ stale
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change