# Daily Market Scan — 2026-05-23

## Executive read

A broad risk-on session closed the week: every US sector and every A-share index posted a green 1D, with semis and Chinese growth indices leading. The dominant weekly theme is bifurcation — semis, healthcare, and small-caps extending their rally while gold, bitcoin, and Hong Kong tech remain in retreat. The six-month regime is unmistakable: SMH +69.79%, USO +98.81%, and US 10Y yields +11.22% mark an AI plus energy plus rate-up market that has left long bonds (TLT -4.73%) and Hong Kong (HSI -5.42%) behind. Today's risk_on_score was -1 despite the broad green close, because semis briefly trailed S&P 500 on a 1D basis; over every other horizon the score sits at its +3 maximum.

## Today (1D)

- US sector breadth was perfect: 8 of 8 sectors closed positive, with XLK (Tech) +1.00%, SMH (Semis) +1.49%, and XLV (Healthcare) +1.17% leading. S&P 500 added +0.37% (pct_rank 63.49), Dow +0.58%, Russell 2000 +0.93%.
- A-shares were the strongest equity bucket: 5 of 5 A-share indices positive, with ChiNext +2.84% (pct_rank 92.06) and SZSE Component +2.30% (pct_rank 97.62 — a top-quartile day of the trailing year). CSI 300 +1.30%, STAR 50 +1.51%, SSE Composite +0.87%.
- Hong Kong joined the bid: Hang Seng +0.86%, Hang Seng Tech +2.11% (pct_rank 87.70). The 1D pop sits against a steeply negative 6M backdrop for HK.
- Macro told a different story: GLD (Gold) -0.76%, IBIT (Bitcoin) -2.36%, USO (WTI Crude) -1.14%, FXI -1.03%. UUP (USD) +0.14% — incrementally firmer dollar.

## This week (1W)

- US small-caps and the Dow were the standouts: Russell 2000 +2.71% (pct_rank 84.52), Dow Jones +2.13% (pct_rank 88.49). The broader S&P 500 added +0.88% and Nasdaq +0.45%.
- XLV (Healthcare) +3.30% (pct_rank 92.86) and SMH (Semis) +3.59% topped the sector tape. Every US sector finished the week green (8 of 8).
- Volatility compressed: VXX -5.20%. STAR 50 +5.57% (pct_rank 84.92) extended the China growth-tech bid that the daily numbers already hinted at.
- Macro pulled back: USO -4.93% (pct_rank 9.52 — bottom decile week for crude over the trailing year), IBIT -4.15%, GLD -0.83%. TLT +1.22% (pct_rank 86.11) on a small relief bid.

## This month (1M)

- Semis dominated by every measure: SMH +19.61% (pct_rank 91.27), XLK +15.75% (pct_rank 92.86). STAR 50 +23.46% (pct_rank 93.25) is the Chinese mirror of the same trade. The S&P 500 added +5.14% and Nasdaq +7.80%.
- A-shares ran broadly: 5 of 5 A-share indices positive, ChiNext +7.10%, SZSE Component +4.21%, CSI 300 +1.84%.
- US 10Y yield +5.07% (pct_rank 90.87) — rates rose hard over the month. TLT -2.16% confirmed the duration headwind. Crude USO ended the month +4.60% despite the weekly pullback.
- The laggards: XLI -1.32% (pct_rank 14.29), FXI -2.66%, HSTECH -1.90%, GLD -3.99% (pct_rank 10.32). Hong Kong did not participate.

## Half-year (6M)

- Energy and AI defined the period: USO +98.81% (pct_rank 93.29 — near the top of any trailing-year window), SMH +69.79% (pct_rank 93.96), XLE (Energy) +32.38% (pct_rank 86.58). XLK +28.41% rounded out the leadership.
- Small-caps caught up: IWM +22.14% (pct_rank 90.60) and EEM (EM equity) +22.34% point to a broadening past the mega-cap tape.
- Bonds and Hong Kong are the visible losers: TLT -4.73%, HSI -5.42% (pct_rank 2.78 — one of the worst 6M windows of the trailing year), HSTECH -18.59% (pct_rank 9.52), FXI -9.18%, IBIT -15.32%. A-shares mostly higher (SZSE Component +17.37%, ChiNext +25.66%, STAR 50 +29.06%, CSI 300 +4.15%) while offshore China proxies lagged badly.
- US 10Y yield +11.22% (pct_rank 98.41) — one of the most aggressive 6M rate moves of the trailing year. GLD +10.36% on a 6M basis even as the 3M (-14.02%) shows the recent rollover.

## Year (1Y)

- The dispersion is enormous: SMH +138.67%, USO +108.49%, ChiNext +94.07%, STAR 50 +74.46%, XLK +57.35%, SZSE Component +52.95%. (derived: the range across these six leaders is roughly 85 percentage points.)
- Healthcare and small-caps held their own: XLV +13.92% (pct_rank 95.65 — top of the trailing 1Y distribution), IWM +40.31%, Dow +20.83%.
- Underperformers cluster around China-offshore and crypto: IBIT -30.47% (pct_rank 0.0 — the worst possible reading), FXI -1.58% (also pct_rank 0.0), HSTECH -8.08%. XLF (Financials) +3.28% is the US laggard.
- The dollar barely moved on the year (UUP +1.02%) and long bonds were essentially flat (TLT +0.85%) — the headline returns lived in equities and commodities, not in FX or duration.

## News context

- **APEC: Japan-China commerce ministers' first face-to-face since the Taiwan flap** — A brief encounter at the APEC dinner in Suzhou. Matters here because the Hong Kong and offshore-China complex (HSI -5.42% 6M, FXI -9.18% 6M) is sensitive to any sign of regional thaw versus continued friction. (Bloomberg Markets)
- **APEC signals US-China remain far apart on trade** — Three observed gaps in priorities post-summit. Reinforces the FXI -1.03% / HSTECH context: the offshore China proxy keeps absorbing the policy-overhang discount while onshore SZSE Component +52.95% 1Y does not. (CNBC top news)
- **Stellantis sees opportunity to bring Chinese-branded vehicles to Mexico and Canada, not US** — A live example of how the trade-route map is being redrawn around the US block. Same FXI versus EM (EEM +42.63% 1Y) divergence story, expressed through autos. (CNBC top news)
- **Will the dollar remain king in a cashless society?** — Bloomberg book interview on USD durability. UUP +2.51% 3M and +1.02% 1Y say the question is academic for now, but the framing sits over the long-cycle macro. (Bloomberg Markets)
- **Charting the Global Economy: factory activity sags on war-driven inflation** — Notes a third month of energy-crunch pressure on manufacturing. Lines up with USO +98.81% 6M and US 10Y +11.22% 6M — the AI plus energy plus rate-up regime in the data is visible here in real-economy form. (Bloomberg Markets)
- **The 1 Tech Stock with More Upside Than Anything Else in the S&P 500** — Single-stock pitch piece. The relevance is only that SMH +138.67% 1Y and XLK +57.35% 1Y means the AI-tech narrative is still drawing retail commentary. (Yahoo Finance)

## Data issues

None.

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## Snapshot & multi-horizon returns

### US equity (indices)

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| S&P 500 | 7,473 | +0.37% | +0.88% | +5.14% | +9.30% | +12.52% | +27.87% | +8.97% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 26,344 | +0.19% | +0.45% | +7.80% | +16.43% | +16.75% | +39.59% | +13.38% |
| Dow Jones | 50,580 | +0.58% | +2.13% | +2.57% | +3.64% | +9.63% | +20.83% | +4.54% |
| Russell 2000 | 285.12 | +0.93% | +2.71% | +3.48% | +9.46% | +22.14% | +40.31% | +14.61% |
| VIX (VXX) | 26.42 | +0.80% | -5.20% | -10.44% | -10.26% | -28.27% | -52.53% | +1.23% |

### US sectors

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| XLK (Tech) | 180.39 | +1.00% | +2.34% | +15.75% | +30.23% | +28.41% | +57.35% | +25.01% |
| XLF (Financials) | 51.94 | +0.41% | +1.64% | +0.27% | +2.39% | +0.74% | +3.28% | -5.44% |
| XLE (Energy) | 59.49 | +0.61% | +0.08% | +4.41% | +7.87% | +32.38% | +45.01% | +30.32% |
| XLV (Healthcare) | 149.89 | +1.17% | +3.30% | +2.50% | -5.46% | -1.60% | +13.92% | -3.61% |
| XLY (Cons Disc) | 119.18 | +0.40% | +2.27% | +1.22% | +3.64% | +6.17% | +12.62% | +0.70% |
| XLP (Cons Staples) | 84.80 | +0.17% | +0.19% | +1.58% | -4.69% | +10.84% | +3.87% | +9.15% |
| XLI (Industrials) | 171.77 | +0.73% | +0.22% | -1.32% | -1.75% | +14.25% | +21.55% | +8.73% |
| SMH (Semis) | 576.32 | +1.49% | +3.59% | +19.61% | +39.59% | +69.79% | +138.67% | +54.39% |

### China A-shares

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SSE Composite | 4,113 | +0.87% | -0.54% | +0.75% | -0.37% | +2.75% | +22.70% | +2.22% |
| SZSE Component | 15,597 | +2.30% | +0.23% | +4.21% | +9.76% | +17.37% | +52.95% | +12.79% |
| CSI 300 | 4,845 | +1.30% | -0.30% | +1.84% | +2.56% | +4.15% | +25.75% | +2.70% |
| ChiNext | 3,938 | +2.84% | +0.24% | +7.10% | +18.61% | +25.66% | +94.07% | +19.55% |
| STAR 50 | 1,791 | +1.51% | +5.57% | +23.46% | +21.70% | +29.06% | +74.46% | +27.60% |

### Hong Kong

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Hang Seng | 25,606 | +0.86% | -1.37% | -2.13% | -3.62% | -5.42% | +9.18% | -2.78% |
| Hang Seng Tech | 4,870 | +2.11% | -1.45% | -1.90% | -9.16% | -18.59% | -8.08% | -15.11% |

### Global macro

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| UUP (USD index) | 27.77 | +0.14% | +0.00% | +0.87% | +2.51% | -2.18% | +1.02% | +2.43% |
| GLD (Gold) | 413.82 | -0.76% | -0.83% | -3.99% | -14.02% | +10.36% | +35.31% | +3.90% |
| USO (WTI Crude) | 140.92 | -1.14% | -4.93% | +4.60% | +74.19% | +98.81% | +108.49% | +104.35% |
| TLT (20Y+ UST) | 84.68 | +0.55% | +1.22% | -2.16% | -5.64% | -4.73% | +0.85% | -2.70% |
| IBIT (Bitcoin) | 42.96 | -2.36% | -4.15% | -2.47% | +17.54% | -15.32% | -30.47% | -15.67% |
| EEM (EM equity) | 65.88 | -0.23% | +1.24% | +5.66% | +6.86% | +22.34% | +42.63% | +17.14% |
| FXI (China lg-cap) | 35.52 | -1.03% | -1.88% | -2.66% | -8.17% | -9.18% | -1.58% | -10.80% |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.5600 | -0.22% | -0.65% | +5.07% | +12.87% | +11.22% | +1.79% | +8.83% |

### Breadth & risk-on

| Horizon | US sectors + | A-shares + | risk_on_score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 1D | 8/8 | 5/5 | -1 |
| 1W | 8/8 | 3/5 | 3 |
| 1M | 7/8 | 5/5 | 3 |
| 3M | 5/8 | 4/5 | 1 |
| 6M | 7/8 | 5/5 | 3 |
| 1Y | 8/8 | 5/5 | 3 |