# Daily Market Scan — 2026-04-29

## Executive read

Today was a quiet, mixed session in the US — the S&P 500 finished -0.04% and the Nasdaq +0.04%, with internals tilting defensive as the Dow gave back -0.57% and the Russell 2000 -0.67%. Crude was the standout: USO ripped +7.90% on the day and is now +16.41% on the week, while the US 10Y yield rose another +1.38% to 4.42 and gold lost -1.07%, suggesting the energy bid is being read as inflationary rather than risk-off. The one-month picture remains broadly risk-on — S&P +12.49%, Nasdaq +18.65%, SMH +37.80%, EEM +14.50%, all with 1M pct_rank between 98 and 99.6 — while the 6-month regime still leans macro: XLE +33.73%, SMH +38.80%, USO +106.00%, GLD +13.73%, against TLT -6.62% and HSTECH -18.27%.

## Today (1D)

- USO led the tape at +7.90% (1D pct_rank 98.41), pulling XLE to +2.29% (pct_rank 96.43); VXX rose +2.44% alongside, an unusual co-move that fits an inflation-shock read rather than a pure risk-off one.
- China and HK were broadly bid: ChiNext +2.51%, SZSE Component +1.96%, Hang Seng Tech +1.72%, Hang Seng +1.68%, CSI 300 +1.10%, SSE Composite +0.71% — A-shares went 5/5 positive on the day (breadth risk_on_score -1, dragged by US sector internals).
- US large-cap was a wash with defensive tilt: S&P 500 -0.04%, Nasdaq +0.04%, but Dow -0.57%, Russell 2000 -0.67%, XLV -0.70%, XLI -0.61%; only XLK (+0.80%) and SMH (+1.70%) carried the tech side.
- Rates and gold diverged from equities: US 10Y +1.38% (pct_rank 92.06), TLT -0.78%, GLD -1.07%, IBIT -1.20% — the duration and hard-asset complex took the hit while the dollar firmed (UUP +0.29%).

## This week (1W)

- Energy dominated the week: USO +16.41% (pct_rank 96.43), XLE +4.40% (pct_rank 93.65), with the 10Y yield up +2.79% (pct_rank 94.44) — a coherent reflation impulse.
- US large-cap indices finished roughly flat (S&P -0.03%, Nasdaq +0.06%) but breadth was uneven: SMH +4.77% and XLK +0.65% held the tape up while Dow -1.27%, Russell 2000 -1.59%, XLY -1.76%, XLV -2.42% lagged. US sectors split 4/8 positive.
- Defensive and duration assets sold off in tandem: GLD -4.10% (pct_rank 6.75), IBIT -4.47%, TLT -1.20%, while UUP firmed +0.47%.
- China A-shares were mixed (3/5 positive): STAR 50 +2.92% and CSI 300 +0.22% up, but ChiNext -1.75%, SZSE Component -0.37%, with Hang Seng -0.20% and HSTECH -1.09% lagging.

## This month (1M)

- The 1M tape is a near-uniform melt-up in US equities and EM: SMH +37.80%, XLK +24.79%, Nasdaq +18.65%, EEM +14.50%, Russell 2000 +13.55%, S&P 500 +12.49% — every one with pct_rank ≥ 98 except XLK at 99.6 and SMH at 99.6.
- VXX fell -25.89% on the month (1M pct_rank 3.57), confirming the vol crush behind the rally; IBIT also rebounded +13.46% (pct_rank 90.87) alongside risk.
- China followed: ChiNext +12.64%, SZSE Component +10.16%, CSI 300 +7.09%, STAR 50 +15.80%, SSE Composite +4.70% — A-shares 5/5 positive, 1M risk_on_score 3.
- The notable misses were XLE -4.73% (pct_rank 6.35) — energy's monthly drawdown sits inside its longer-term uptrend — and XLV -0.68%, with TLT -1.24% and UUP -1.32% rounding out the laggards.

## Half-year (6M)

- Energy and semis lead the 6-month regime: USO +106.00% (pct_rank 99.6), SMH +38.80%, XLE +33.73% (pct_rank 96.03), GLD +13.73% — a real-asset plus AI-hardware barbell.
- Duration and Chinese offshore equity are the persistent losers: TLT -6.62% (pct_rank 6.35), HSTECH -18.27% (pct_rank 8.73), FXI -11.54% (pct_rank 5.95), IBIT -34.51% (pct_rank 19.05).
- The US 10Y yield is +10.22% over 6M (pct_rank 99.6) — the highest-percentile move on the board — consistent with TLT's drawdown and the energy lead.
- US sectors finish 5/8 positive over 6M (risk_on_score 3), with XLI +9.08%, XLP +4.67%, S&P 500 +3.79%, Russell 2000 +8.70% participating, against XLF -2.64%, XLV -2.41%, XLY -3.07%.

## Year (1Y)

- The 1Y board is risk-on almost everywhere outside crypto and HK tech: SMH +137.16% (pct_rank 96.83), USO +122.30% (pct_rank 99.6), ChiNext +91.01%, XLK +52.89%, SZSE Component +53.39%, STAR 50 +48.41%, EEM +44.02%, XLE +42.29%, Nasdaq +42.08%, Russell 2000 +39.57%, GLD +35.05%, XLI +31.28%, S&P 500 +29.07%, CSI 300 +27.89%, SSE Composite +25.70%, Hang Seng +22.05%, Dow +21.46%, XLY +18.22%.
- VXX is -54.43% over 1Y (pct_rank 5.95) — vol regime is firmly compressed across the year despite the 1D pop.
- The clear 1Y laggards are IBIT -20.66% (pct_rank 9.92), HSTECH +0.46% (pct_rank 15.48), XLV +3.06%, XLP +2.92%, UUP +1.43%, TLT -4.19% — defensives, duration, and crypto have been left behind by the cyclical lift.
- Breadth is unambiguous on the 1Y horizon: US sectors 8/8 positive, A-shares 5/5 positive, risk_on_score 3.

## News context

_(No news headlines available — historical backfill; the RSS news corpus is 7-day-rolling and does not cover this date.)_

## Data issues

None.

## Snapshot & multi-horizon returns

### US equity (indices)

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| S&P 500 | 7,136 | -0.04% | -0.03% | +12.49% | +2.26% | +3.79% | +29.07% | +4.05% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 24,673 | +0.04% | +0.06% | +18.65% | +3.42% | +4.38% | +42.08% | +6.19% |
| Dow Jones | 48,862 | -0.57% | -1.27% | +8.06% | -0.31% | +2.77% | +21.46% | +0.99% |
| Russell 2000 | 272.08 | -0.67% | -1.59% | +13.55% | +3.33% | +8.70% | +39.57% | +9.37% |
| VIX (VXX) | 29.02 | +2.44% | -1.79% | -25.89% | +8.00% | -9.31% | -54.43% | +11.19% |

### US sectors

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| XLK (Tech) | 159.11 | +0.80% | +0.65% | +24.79% | +6.62% | +6.43% | +52.89% | +10.26% |
| XLF (Financials) | 51.92 | +0.14% | -0.56% | +7.36% | -2.02% | -2.64% | +7.78% | -5.48% |
| XLE (Energy) | 59.03 | +2.29% | +4.40% | -4.73% | +17.94% | +33.73% | +42.29% | +29.31% |
| XLV (Healthcare) | 142.84 | -0.70% | -2.42% | -0.68% | -7.43% | -2.41% | +3.06% | -8.15% |
| XLY (Cons Disc) | 116.84 | -0.15% | -1.76% | +10.58% | -4.05% | -3.07% | +18.22% | -1.28% |
| XLP (Cons Staples) | 82.92 | -0.19% | +0.99% | +1.27% | +0.73% | +4.67% | +2.92% | +6.73% |
| XLI (Industrials) | 169.93 | -0.61% | -0.65% | +8.51% | +3.53% | +9.08% | +31.28% | +7.56% |
| SMH (Semis) | 499.58 | +1.70% | +4.77% | +37.80% | +19.91% | +38.80% | +137.16% | +33.83% |

### China A-shares

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SSE Composite | 4,108 | +0.71% | +0.03% | +4.70% | -0.23% | +4.95% | +25.70% | +2.09% |
| SZSE Component | 15,121 | +1.96% | -0.37% | +10.16% | +6.07% | +16.35% | +53.39% | +9.35% |
| CSI 300 | 4,810 | +1.10% | +0.22% | +7.09% | +1.85% | +4.74% | +27.89% | +1.96% |
| ChiNext | 3,687 | +2.51% | -1.75% | +12.64% | +11.88% | +20.52% | +91.01% | +11.92% |
| STAR 50 | 1,494 | +0.33% | +2.92% | +15.80% | -2.73% | +6.27% | +48.41% | +6.42% |

### Hong Kong

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Hang Seng | 26,112 | +1.68% | -0.20% | +5.05% | -1.95% | +0.32% | +22.05% | -0.86% |
| Hang Seng Tech | 4,910 | +1.72% | -1.09% | +3.12% | -14.79% | -18.27% | +0.46% | -14.41% |

### Global macro

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| UUP (USD index) | 27.61 | +0.29% | +0.47% | -1.32% | +3.68% | -0.97% | +1.43% | +1.84% |
| GLD (Gold) | 417.41 | -1.07% | -4.10% | +0.68% | -15.60% | +13.73% | +35.05% | +4.80% |
| USO (WTI Crude) | 150.63 | +7.90% | +16.41% | +16.02% | +96.59% | +106.00% | +122.30% | +118.43% |
| TLT (20Y+ UST) | 85.70 | -0.78% | -1.20% | -1.24% | -2.17% | -6.62% | -4.19% | -1.53% |
| IBIT (Bitcoin) | 42.75 | -1.20% | -4.47% | +13.46% | -15.36% | -34.51% | -20.66% | -16.08% |
| EEM (EM equity) | 62.69 | -0.48% | -1.09% | +14.50% | +3.19% | +12.53% | +44.02% | +11.47% |
| FXI (China lg-cap) | 36.34 | +0.25% | -1.70% | +3.83% | -10.27% | -11.54% | +6.88% | -8.74% |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.4200 | +1.38% | +2.79% | +2.79% | +4.25% | +10.22% | +3.03% | +5.49% |

### Breadth & risk-on

| Horizon | US sectors + | A-shares + | risk_on_score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 1D | 4/8 | 5/5 | -1 |
| 1W | 4/8 | 3/5 | 1 |
| 1M | 6/8 | 5/5 | 3 |
| 3M | 5/8 | 3/5 | 1 |
| 6M | 5/8 | 5/5 | 3 |
| 1Y | 8/8 | 5/5 | 3 |