# Daily Market Scan — 2026-04-02

## Executive read

US large-caps drifted higher on the day with the S&P 500 +0.11% and Nasdaq +0.18%, but the session masks a broadly negative 1M tape — US sector breadth is just 1/8 positive over the last month. The dominant 1W theme is a sharp crude spike (USO +17.62%) alongside a gold rip (GLD +7.18%), while VIX (VXX) is down -5.24% on the week even with 1M still +17.75%. The 6-month regime shows energy and gold leadership (XLE +32.64%, GLD +20.61%) against a backdrop of weakness in Hong Kong tech (HSTECH -26.65%) and outright bitcoin decline (IBIT -43.11%).

## Today (1D)

- USO (WTI Crude) printed a tail-event move at +11.15%, sitting at the 99.21 percentile of its 1D history; no other instrument is close.
- US large-caps mixed and small: S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.18%, Dow -0.13%, Russell 2000 +0.69%. US sector breadth 5/8 positive (risk_on_score -1).
- China onshore broadly lower — ChiNext -2.31%, STAR 50 -2.77%, SZSE Component -1.60%, CSI 300 -1.04%, SSE Composite -0.74%. A-shares breadth 0/5 positive.
- Defensive/USD bid alongside a gold drop: UUP +0.47%, TLT +0.61%, GLD -1.92%, IBIT -1.73%.

## This week (1W)

- USO +17.62% and GLD +7.18% lead by a wide margin; both sit in the top of their 1W history (USO pct_rank 97.62, GLD 95.63).
- US equities up across the board over the week: Nasdaq +2.20%, S&P 500 +1.63%, Russell 2000 +1.56%, Dow +1.18%. SMH +3.01% and XLK +2.63% lead sectors.
- China/HK split: SSE Composite +0.78% and Hang Seng +1.05%, but ChiNext -3.05%, STAR 50 -2.07%, HSTECH -1.73%, SZSE Component -0.88%.
- VIX (VXX) -5.24% on the week and US 10Y yield -2.49%, both consistent with the week's risk-on equity tone (1W risk_on_score 3).

## This month (1M)

- Energy / oil decoupled hard: USO +50.63% (pct_rank 97.22) and XLE +5.45% (pct_rank 72.62) are the only US sector or commodity bids over the month.
- US equities deeply negative: S&P 500 -4.18%, Nasdaq -4.07%, Dow -4.59%, Russell 2000 -4.00%. Sector breadth just 1/8 positive (1M risk_on_score 1).
- Hardest hit US sectors: XLY -7.08%, XLI -6.93%, XLV -6.52%, XLP -6.05%. SMH -1.70% held up best among cyclicals.
- Macro stress signature: VIX (VXX) +17.75%, US 10Y yield +5.38% (pct_rank 93.65), GLD -8.98%, IBIT -8.37%.

## Half-year (6M)

- USO +88.57% (pct_rank 99.6) and XLE +32.64% (pct_rank 96.83) are the standout leaders; GLD +20.61% and SMH +17.57% round out the top.
- US large-caps roughly flat-to-down: Dow +0.14%, S&P 500 -1.91%, Nasdaq -3.85%, XLK -4.44%. Russell 2000 +3.63%.
- China/HK weakness concentrated in HSTECH -26.65% (pct_rank 0.0) and FXI -14.06% (pct_rank 1.19); STAR 50 -8.56% (pct_rank 0.0). Onshore mainland indices roughly flat (SSE +2.29%, SZSE +3.15%, CSI 300 -0.43%).
- IBIT -43.11% (pct_rank 1.98) is the worst 6M reading in the watchlist; TLT -2.80% confirms duration also offered no shelter.

## Year (1Y)

- SMH +84.63% (pct_rank 98.81) leads, followed by USO +78.93% and GLD +49.32%. EEM +29.08%, XLE +26.06%, Russell 2000 +25.95% and Nasdaq +25.38% round out the strong cohort.
- US sector breadth 7/8 positive on the year (1Y risk_on_score 3); A-shares breadth 5/5 positive, with ChiNext +42.76% and SZSE Component +22.84% leading onshore China.
- Weak 1Y reads cluster in HSTECH -15.20%, IBIT -21.39%, TLT -5.14%, UUP -2.49% and FXI -0.56%; XLF -0.44% is the lone US sector negative on the year.
- US 10Y yield +0.94% on the year — essentially flat at 4.31%.

## News context

_(No news headlines available — historical backfill; the RSS news corpus is 7-day-rolling and does not cover this date.)_

## Data issues

None.

## Snapshot & multi-horizon returns

### US equity (indices)

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| S&P 500 | 6,583 | +0.11% | +1.63% | -4.18% | -3.84% | -1.91% | +16.86% | -4.02% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 21,879 | +0.18% | +2.20% | -4.07% | -5.86% | -3.85% | +25.38% | -5.84% |
| Dow Jones | 46,505 | -0.13% | +1.18% | -4.59% | -3.24% | +0.14% | +10.75% | -3.88% |
| Russell 2000 | 251.29 | +0.69% | +1.56% | -4.00% | +2.08% | +3.63% | +25.95% | +1.01% |
| VIX (VXX) | 34.70 | -0.09% | -5.24% | +17.75% | +31.09% | +5.25% | -32.60% | +32.95% |

### US sectors

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| XLK (Tech) | 135.99 | +0.80% | +2.63% | -2.75% | -5.54% | -4.44% | +30.77% | -5.76% |
| XLF (Financials) | 49.53 | +0.18% | +0.98% | -3.83% | -9.57% | -7.23% | -0.44% | -9.83% |
| XLE (Energy) | 59.25 | +0.47% | -3.69% | +5.45% | +32.52% | +32.64% | +26.06% | +29.79% |
| XLV (Healthcare) | 146.81 | -0.62% | +0.73% | -6.52% | -5.16% | +2.33% | +2.42% | -5.59% |
| XLY (Cons Disc) | 108.15 | -1.50% | -0.62% | -7.08% | -9.43% | -10.30% | +8.41% | -8.62% |
| XLP (Cons Staples) | 81.89 | +0.53% | +0.92% | -6.05% | +5.42% | +4.65% | +0.12% | +5.41% |
| XLI (Industrials) | 163.77 | -0.40% | +1.55% | -6.93% | +5.58% | +6.48% | +24.25% | +3.67% |
| SMH (Semis) | 392.32 | +0.09% | +3.01% | -1.70% | +8.94% | +17.57% | +84.63% | +5.10% |

### China A-shares

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| SSE Composite | 3,919 | -0.74% | +0.78% | -4.00% | -0.55% | +2.29% | +14.38% | -2.59% |
| SZSE Component | 13,487 | -1.60% | -0.88% | -3.10% | +0.00% | +3.15% | +22.84% | -2.47% |
| CSI 300 | 4,479 | -1.04% | +0.03% | -2.69% | -3.35% | -0.43% | +11.69% | -5.06% |
| ChiNext | 3,173 | -2.31% | -3.05% | +0.26% | -1.76% | +2.48% | +42.76% | -3.70% |
| STAR 50 | 1,262 | -2.77% | -2.07% | -8.64% | -6.65% | -8.56% | +17.20% | -10.06% |

### Hong Kong

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Hang Seng | 25,117 | -0.70% | +1.05% | -0.53% | -2.85% | -5.17% | +7.59% | -4.64% |
| Hang Seng Tech | 4,679 | -1.63% | -1.73% | -3.11% | -16.12% | -26.65% | -15.20% | -18.43% |

### Global macro

| Instrument | Last | 1D | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | YTD |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| UUP (USD index) | 27.86 | +0.47% | +0.18% | +1.64% | +3.07% | +1.31% | -2.49% | +2.77% |
| GLD (Gold) | 429.41 | -1.92% | +7.18% | -8.98% | +8.35% | +20.61% | +49.32% | +7.82% |
| USO (WTI Crude) | 137.92 | +11.15% | +17.62% | +50.63% | +99.42% | +88.57% | +78.93% | +100.00% |
| TLT (20Y+ UST) | 86.79 | +0.61% | +0.79% | -2.65% | -0.42% | -2.80% | -5.14% | -0.28% |
| IBIT (Bitcoin) | 37.97 | -1.73% | -2.19% | -8.37% | -23.52% | -43.11% | -21.39% | -25.46% |
| EEM (EM equity) | 56.59 | -1.12% | +2.02% | -4.17% | +3.44% | +5.15% | +29.08% | +0.62% |
| FXI (China lg-cap) | 35.56 | +0.00% | +1.80% | -1.80% | -7.13% | -14.06% | -0.56% | -10.70% |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.3100 | -0.46% | -2.49% | +5.38% | +3.11% | +3.86% | +0.94% | +2.86% |

### Breadth & risk-on

| Horizon | US sectors + | A-shares + | risk_on_score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 1D | 5/8 | 0/5 | -1 |
| 1W | 6/8 | 2/5 | 3 |
| 1M | 1/8 | 1/5 | 1 |
| 3M | 4/8 | 1/5 | 1 |
| 6M | 5/8 | 3/5 | 1 |
| 1Y | 7/8 | 5/5 | 3 |